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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


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Paul the Wolf

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If that the case then I can see two options here

A- The UK ends up exploiting this hole within the single market. That will bring the end of the EU.
B- Hard borders is imposed on anything coming out of the ROI which will be pretty much the same as kicking Ireland out of the single market/customs union
Neither of those options are going to happen.

For certain the EU will not renegotiate the Protocol nor the Withdrawal Agreement nor will Ireland leave the EU or be chucked out.

If the Uk break the protocol or the withdrawal agreement they may as well forget any deal with anyone worldwide. Current deals will probably have terms to cancel them if they break international law.
Sanctions will be imposed on the UK .

Playing to the UK audience is not going to help them in the big wide world.

It is not only international law they would be breaking but British law too; These Brexit liars might just end up behind bars after all.
 

devilish

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Think about what you're saying though. Let's imagine that the EU's response to the UK abandoning the protocol would be to kick Ireland out of the single market... that effectively puts a gun to Ireland's head. Each time the UK wanted anything from the EU, it could threaten to trigger Article 16 of the protocol and force Ireland to do its bidding/ wield its veto.

Basic game theory says the EU can't hand the UK such massive power over a member state. They're really not that dumb.
The protocol means jack shit if the UK decides to break it left right and center. In such scenario then it will have its market inundated by rubbish. The UK would then become the top smuggler in the world with unrestricted access to the single market without any responsibility or restrictions whatsoever.

How long do you think it would take before EU countries start calling quits after that? If the EU ends then who will protect the ROI from UK's bullying especially since the GFA is more important to Ireland then to Westminster?

The EU is playing a game of chess with a potentially rogue state who can't be bothered following rules and would throw anyone under a bridge to get what it wants. An amicable and non painful solution is not possible
 

devilish

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Neither of those options are going to happen.

For certain the EU will not renegotiate the Protocol nor the Withdrawal Agreement nor will Ireland leave the EU or be chucked out.

If the Uk break the protocol or the withdrawal agreement they may as well forget any deal with anyone worldwide. Current deals will probably have terms to cancel them if they break international law.
Sanctions will be imposed on the UK .

Playing to the UK audience is not going to help them in the big wide world.

It is not only international law they would be breaking but British law too; These Brexit liars might just end up behind bars after all.
The UK keeps signing treaties despite constantly threatening of breaking international law. Seriously mate how many countries do you think there are who truly care about the GFA?
 

Paul the Wolf

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The UK keeps signing treaties despite constantly threatening of breaking international law. Seriously mate how many countries do you think there are who truly care about the GFA?
They threaten a lot of things but don't have the power any more. When they actually break international law, the consequences will be there, The US and the EU are very powerful especially together.
Trustworthiness is at about an all time low, it wasn't very high during the withdrawal negotiations, even less now. Countries care about trustworthiness.
 

MikeUpNorth

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I imagine if the UK did decide to unilaterally suspend parts of the protocol, it would do it through Article 16 and claim just cause, rather than straight up saying "we're breaking international law". How that would go down outside of Europe, I'm not sure. I think America would fully back the EU, though probably not to the extent of implementing trade or diplomatic sanctions.
 

Balljy

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I imagine if the UK did decide to unilaterally suspend parts of the protocol, it would do it through Article 16 and claim just cause, rather than straight up saying "we're breaking international law". How that would go down outside of Europe, I'm not sure. I think America would fully back the EU, though probably not to the extent of implementing trade or diplomatic sanctions.
Thy US likely wouldn't bring in further sanctions, but they have said multiple times "there is no chance" (in their words) of a trade agreement with the UK if the GFA is threatened in any way by the actions of the UK.
 

MikeUpNorth

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Thy US likely wouldn't bring in further sanctions, but they have said multiple times "there is no chance" (in their words) of a trade agreement with the UK if the GFA is threatened in any way by the actions of the UK.
There's not going to be a meaningful UK-US trade agreement either way.
 

Paul the Wolf

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I imagine if the UK did decide to unilaterally suspend parts of the protocol, it would do it through Article 16 and claim just cause, rather than straight up saying "we're breaking international law". How that would go down outside of Europe, I'm not sure. I think America would fully back the EU, though probably not to the extent of implementing trade or diplomatic sanctions.
I don't think Jeffrey Donaldson wanting to be English and Marks & Spencer refusing to put " Only for consumption in Northern Ireland' can be classified a just cause.
The DUP are Johnson's useful idiots for the moment.
 
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Frosty

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I imagine if the UK did decide to unilaterally suspend parts of the protocol, it would do it through Article 16 and claim just cause, rather than straight up saying "we're breaking international law". How that would go down outside of Europe, I'm not sure. I think America would fully back the EU, though probably not to the extent of implementing trade or diplomatic sanctions.
We will all soon find out: https://www.theguardian.com/politic...moves-saying-brexit-deal-must-be-renegotiated

"Boris Johnson has rejected Brussels’ latest attempt to iron out problems with the post-Brexit arrangements for Northern Ireland, insisting that the withdrawal agreement signed last year must be renegotiated.

A series of proposals published by the European Commission on Monday with the aim of easing implementation of the Northern Ireland protocol were said to be insufficient for the scale of the problems.

A UK government spokesperson said the two sides instead needed “comprehensive and durable solutions”. David Frost, the minister responsible for Brexit issues, has said that without a major change to the legal text of the protocol, the government will consider triggering article 16 of the EU-UK agreement to suspend parts of the deal."
 

MikeUpNorth

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Brussels puts hold on legal action against UK over Brexit deal breach
Brussels has paused legal action against the UK government in an attempt to de-escalate tensions over customs rules on goods entering Northern Ireland.

The European Commission said on Tuesday that it would freeze an infringement process triggered in March over the UK’s breaching of the terms of the post-Brexit Northern Ireland protocol, which requires checks on goods entering Northern Ireland from the UK mainland.

The commission said the pause would help “provide the necessary space to reflect on these issues and find durable solutions to the implementation of the protocol”.
https://www.ft.com/content/e1b98107-bac9-4d3f-a893-fa63cb2eaf3b
 

Mr Pigeon

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Nothing says "fast moving economy" like a slow moving ship that now costs the taxpayer £250 million.

A new national flagship yacht, designed to promote the UK around the globe, will cost up to £250m, the defence secretary has said.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58002977
This thing won't be used for trade missions. It'll be used for Tory sex parties.
 

Balljy

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Nothing says "fast moving economy" like a slow moving ship that now costs the taxpayer £250 million.



This thing won't be used for trade missions. It'll be used for Tory sex parties.
I notice it hasn't been given a name yet. It'll probably be sent around the world to promote UK values and be called "The Colston".
 

Buster15

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The UK keeps signing treaties despite constantly threatening of breaking international law. Seriously mate how many countries do you think there are who truly care about the GFA?
It is not all about the GFA in isolation.
What it is more about is trust and credibility on an international stage.
 

Berbasbullet

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So shameless :lol: it’s actually getting funny how much they can take the p… out of all of us and the rest of us morons seem to cheer them to the rafters :lol:
 

Cheimoon

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A ship will promote UK around the globe. These guys are shameless.
What is it even supposed to achieve? When's the last time that sort of thing had any noticeable effect? (Assuming it won't be a controversy-stirring ship like that abortion boat.)
 

Klopper76

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Are they still trying to blame Covid for the empty supermarket shelves when everyone knows it's Brexit that caused it?
 

Frosty

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No words.
I mean, is it even surprising?

This was always going to be the approach - blame all the extra costs of Brexit on the EU's bitterness that the UK left and reclaimed its former glory. It is exactly the Government's approach to the Protocol.
 

Wibble

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I mean, is it even surprising?

This was always going to be the approach - blame all the extra costs of Brexit on the EU's bitterness that the UK left and reclaimed its former glory. It is exactly the Government's approach to the Protocol.
How dare they notice we have left the EU and treat us as if we are no longer part of the EU.
 

UnrelatedPsuedo

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Jesus that’s an infuriating read.
Come on. Nobody could have predicted this and the Remoaners wasted 5 years of preparation time trying to tell people exactly what would happen instead of waving flags on their funeral March. There is simply no way the required amount of people could have been employed to do exactly the amount of work that everyone knew would be necessary.
 

Balljy

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That just blows the mind, how the feck are the negative effects of Brexit that everyone warned about (and were told by Boris and co. would not happen) somehow reasons why the UK was right to leave. What a bunch of weapons.
What really frustrates me about that segment is that when a rational argument is put to them the response is to bring vaccines into it. It's just bizarre and nothing to do with the conversation.

We're not in the EU anymore so will be subject to the same visa charges as other non-EU countries so it's nothing to do with bitterness. How can they not understand that?
 

JPRouve

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After all that winning they're still not happy, it seems.

Brexiters waiting at the station awaiting the arrival of the Brexit train delivering all the benefits.

I want to slap everyone of them. :mad:
 

JPRouve

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What really frustrates me about that segment is that when a rational argument is put to them the response is to bring vaccines into it. It's just bizarre and nothing to do with the conversation.

We're not in the EU anymore so will be subject to the same visa charges as other non-EU countries so it's nothing to do with bitterness. How can they not understand that?
Even more infuriating, there is no EU vaccine program each country did what it wanted to do, also it's very easy to be vaccinated in France.
 

Paul the Wolf

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Even more infuriating, there is no EU vaccine program each country did what it wanted to do, also it's very easy to be vaccinated in France.
They'll never change no matter what happens;
Most of the major EU countries will pass the UK on vaccinations by the end of August as well. That Owen Jones hedging his bets after Corbyn's and Starmer's Brexit performances. He also thought Venezuela was a well-run country.
 
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They'll never change no matter what happens;
Most of the major EU countries will pass the UK on vaccinations by the end of August as well.
Aye, I said this back in Jan when many were so desperately trying to claim the vaccines as a Brexit victory. The UK was always going to quickly be caught up and would still have amongst the highest figures in Europe for excess deaths despite this extremely short lived “victory”.
Not surprisingly that’s exactly what has transpired.
 
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JPRouve

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They'll never change no matter what happens;
Most of the major EU countries will pass the UK on vaccinations by the end of August as well. That Owen Jones hedging his bets after Corbyn's and Starmer's Brexit performances. He also thought Venezuela was a well-run country.
A quick look at the full vaccination rates and it seems that the UK is at 58.1% while France is at 59.5%(ECDC's figures). Is that correct?
 

horsechoker

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Remoaners fear mongering again. I'm going to Spain, I'd like to see them charge me 7 potatoes.
 

africanspur

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No words.
Mind numbing and infuriating stupidity.

If it weren't for my decision to dissociate for my mental health, think I'd be banging my head against the wall in tears again.

They can't understand the concept of being a 3rd country.

Also had to laugh at the 'we're an open country' line. I know so many non Europeans who even before Brexit would come to Europe, travel around the mainland with the Schengen and avoid the UK. Either because the fees and general attitude of our visa staff are prohibitive or they'd get randomly rejected with no explanation, even as they got the Schengen without issue.

And they're still babbling on about vaccines ffs. They're about 6 months late.

Idiots.
 

africanspur

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Also had to laugh at how £6 is going to make the holiday unaffordable now.