SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[ThierryHenry]

It's all relative I suppose. Obviously people are out much less than they were pre-lockdown, but they're out much more than countries in comparable situation. Some days people are going to the park just as much as they were pre-lockdown, while for France, Spain or Italy that would be absolutely absurd.

I also don't understand the fascination with parks. London is thankfully a very green city, with many excellent parks. That's been hugely beneficial in lockdown, allowing people to walk and exercise away from roads where you're more likely to have to brush past people. Many also live in flats or places without gardens, again meaning that parks are a great way to spend time outside in an open plan area.

Do you really believe that there has been a material spread in the virus from people walking or jogging past each other in parks? Maybe I'm wrong, but it doesn't seem the type of environment that would spread the virus.

 

[Kag]

I know it is important, very important but we shouldn't rush measures through because of our concern for the economy. If we do that we run the danger of a second massive spike in infections which will cause an even more damaging second lockdown which would likely be more severe and longer lasting. My view is keep this shut down now needs to be for longer and relaxed extremely cautiously to avoid things quickly getting out of control which will damage the economy in an even more severe way.

The press briefings don’t indicate a rush, to be frank. The issue we have here is that the government chooses to use the Daily Telegraph to assert its views, instead of doing it through parliament. It creates hysteria, some of which we can see online right now.

If businesses can open and do so safely then that is a good thing. It will save lives, to quote a phrase.

Extended lockdowns are the rich man’s problem (paradise?). If, come Monday, people still want to stay inside their four bed semis all day then I guess they’re welcome to do so.

 

[africanspur]

It's all relative I suppose. Obviously people are out much less than they were pre-lockdown, but they're out much more than countries in comparable situation. Some days people are going to the park just as much as they were pre-lockdown, while for France, Spain or Italy that would be absolutely absurd.

It is hardly surprising that people are still going out to the park, considering that you were never explicitly banned as long as you were socially distancing within the park itself. And if I'm reading that correctly, visits from European flag bearers Germany were actually up to the parks?

My question from that graph would actually be why in Italy and Spain, where you weren't allowed out at all except for the most urgent of causes, the drop was not essentially 100%? Who are these 1/4 of people who are still going to the park in Italy when you need a slip to explain why you're out of the house at all?

My point is not to compare the individual lockdowns and their effectiveness (or governmental responses) but to comment against the intellectual superiority some seem to feel over the Brits/ other Brits, in their eagerness to prove how great they are in comparison.

I'm reading this thread and seeing so many people complain and insult Brits/ other Brits and I go out and about on my way to work or to go shopping and see a completely different picture to what is being portrayed on here.

 

[SteveJ]

Laura K: 'Boris Johnson to give speech on plans to ease lockdown at 7pm on Sunday'

Hell, who needs Parliament, eh?

 

[Dan_F]

I also don't understand the fascination with parks. London is thankfully a very green city, with many excellent parks. That's been hugely beneficial in lockdown, allowing people to walk and exercise away from roads where you're more likely to have to brush past people. Many also live in flats or places without gardens, again meaning that parks are a great way to spend time outside in an open plan area.

Do you really believe that there has been a material spread in the virus from people walking or jogging past each other in parks? Maybe I'm wrong, but it doesn't seem the type of environment that would spread the virus.

Exactly this. My girlfriend and I went for a walk yesterday evening and sat down on what is normally a golf course for half hour. We don’t have any form of garden or balcony and there was no one within 100 yards of us. We also only needed 5 minutes to walk there.

Most of the people moaning are probably furloughed with gardens. Sorry I wanted to go into the day light after 8 hours of staring at a computer screen. I wouldn’t sit on benches or anything like that at the moment, due to the risk of it staying on the surface, but grass in a massive field. Not really seeing the problem.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

This is for Geneva only. Unlikely to get the same 10:1 ratio outside cities. So really just confirms what all other robust serological data is telling us. Herd immunity is still absolutely miles off.

 

[africanspur]

I agree entirely.

Folk are just interested in having a grammatically abhorrent whinge on Facebook to boost their sense of self-worth.

Couldn't agree more. There's a huge desire for people to show their superiority, and to point out those who are being dimmer than they are, with pictures of busy parks etc. Undoubtedly true in some cases, but the vast majority of people in the UK have done extremely well in lockdown, and in many cases, at significant personal sacrifice.

The slowness of our government to react, and the fact that London is one of the world's major global cities (alongside the likes of Paris and New York) is why we're in this mess, not the behaviour of the general public.

Yep I agree totally. I think it is in large part some weird drive for people to prove they're better than others. Why exactly? If you're following guidance, great. The evidence seems to show that for the most part, so are most others. If you have a bone to pick, it would be with whether the lockdown should be even more strict but that is a governmental decision.

London and our shitty government are the reasons we're in this mess as you say, not some inherent flaw of the British public as some always seem to want to portray.

 

[Hugh Jass]

I know it is important, very important but we shouldn't rush measures through because of our concern for the economy. If we do that we run the danger of a second massive spike in infections which will cause an even more damaging second lockdown which would likely be more severe and longer lasting. My view is keep this shut down now needs to be for longer and relaxed extremely cautiously to avoid things quickly getting out of control which will damage the economy in an even more severe way.

No matter what you do a second wave is inevitable, unless you literally shut down the economy for two years.

Dr Michael Osterholm was asked by a commentator, what we do to prevent a second wave? He almost burst out laughing condescendingly. "There is nothing you can do. A second wave is a certainty."

 

[Sweet Square]

Yep I agree totally. I think it is in large part some weird drive for people to prove they're better than others. Why exactly? If you're following guidance, great. The evidence seems to show that for the most part, so are most others. If you have a bone to pick, it would be with whether the lockdown should be even more strict but that is a governmental decision.

London and our shitty government are the reasons we're in this mess as you say, not some inherent flaw of the British public as some always seem to want to portray.

Agree with you overall but the public did on mass voted for this lot.

 

[balaks]

No matter what you do a second wave is inevitable, unless you literally shut down the economy for two years.

Dr Michael Osterholm was asked by a commentator, what we do to prevent a second wave? He almost burst out laughing condescendingly. "There is nothing you can do. A second wave is a certainty."

You may not be able to prevent it but you can reduce it's impact.

 

[Pagh Wraith]

Laura K: 'Boris Johnson to give speech on plans to ease lockdown at 7pm on Sunday'

Hell, who needs Parliament, eh?

Why would he need the parliament for that?

 

[africanspur]

Agree with you overall but the public did on mass voted for this lot.

Fair point .

 

[SteveJ]

Why would he need the parliament for that?

The fair-minded approach would be to allow debate on this matter in Parliament. Or at least, scrutiny.

 

[Pagh Wraith]

The fair-minded approach would be to allow debate on this matter in Parliament. Or at least, scrutiny.

This hasn't happened here in Germany either. The Chancellor discusses all measures with relevant ministers from the cabinet and the Minister Presidents from the states and then announces the results to the public in a press conference.

 

[711]

Yes, that's the point backing up what you said, pay enough money then people will do the job. Its as always been the case, its not a big secret really although reading many of the posts on here you think it was.
In what might be described as 'normal times', since everybody from the farmer through to the retailer has to make a profit, the people who do the hard work are paid paltry sums, if they were paid reasonably then the consumer would have to pay more...and we can't have that can we?
Using furlough payments the tax payer is still footing the bill, are they not?

I owe you an apology Matic. I think most people know it's supply and demand, if you need more workers you have to pay them more. What I was actually trying to do was draw in someone sat on home doing nothing for £2.5k to see what they had to say about the idea, but I got you instead. Childish of me really, hence the apology. To clear up, yes, if the workers have better conditions, realistic targets and better pay then there won't be a shortage, couldn't agree more.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Yep I agree totally. I think it is in large part some weird drive for people to prove they're better than others. Why exactly? If you're following guidance, great. The evidence seems to show that for the most part, so are most others. If you have a bone to pick, it would be with whether the lockdown should be even more strict but that is a governmental decision.

London and our shitty government are the reasons we're in this mess as you say, not some inherent flaw of the British public as some always seem to want to portray.

I think you’re being a little harsh about the moral superiority motivation. I think it’s a combination of a sense of injustice or unfairness (“I’m sticking to the rules, so why aren’t they?”) along with a genuine concern about the virus getting out of hand if taking the piss becomes more widespread.

I can’t really comment on any inherent flaw of the British public but people taking the piss seems to be happening in lots of different countries, not just the UK. Our PM talked about “anticipatory behaviour”, referencing the way many pubs and restaurants in Ireland closed their doors before they were told to, because they knew closure was inevitable. The same behaviour on the way out of lockdown could be absolutely disastrous.

 

[Tibs]

Lockdown extended in Scotland for another 3 weeks

 

[JPRouve]

Why would he need the parliament for that?

He wouldn't, parliament would just add people who know nothing on the subject around the table and those people have an interest to score political points where no one should.

 

[Penna]

My question from that graph would actually be why in Italy and Spain, where you weren't allowed out at all except for the most urgent of causes, the drop was not essentially 100%? Who are these 1/4 of people who are still going to the park in Italy when you need a slip to explain why you're out of the house at all?

I don't know how anyone in Italy visited parks, because they've been physically closed with barriers. You'd have to be making a determined effort to get in.

 

[ThierryHenry]

I think you’re being a little harsh about the moral superiority motivation. I think it’s a combination of a sense of injustice or unfairness (“I’m sticking to the rules, so why aren’t they?”) along with a genuine concern about the virus getting out of hand if taking the piss becomes more widespread.

I can’t really comment on any inherent flaw of the British public but people taking the piss seems to be happening in lots of different countries, not just the UK. Our PM talked about “anticipatory behaviour”, referencing the way many pubs and restaurants in Ireland closed their doors before they were told to, because they knew closure was inevitable. The same behaviour on the way out of lockdown could be absolutely disastrous.

Could you not also read that example in the opposite way?

That people have, on average, been overly cautious rather than less. A pub that was about to lose an unprecedented amount of money closing before it was told to, sounds like a fantastic example of acting for the benefit of society, rather than personal greed.

From a quick Google, I can't find corroborating evidence of this, but Stephen Bush on the New Statesman podcast has repeatedly said that the government have been surprised by the number of businesses that have temporarily closed down. They expected more restaurants to operate as takeaways, more businesses to continue operating with a skeleton crew, and generally, far fewer people to access the furlough scheme than have done so. I think the general tone of indignation at the public is highly unfair, and doesn't reflect how 95%+ of people have behaved over the last two months.

 

[redshaw]

London is about 20% of the cases in just England. North West is 21k cases, London 25k, seems to tie in equally with the population numbers of each area and goes against the tube and London being a dense area etc.

 

[Snafu17]

Apparently more than 80 % percent of Slovenia's casualties came from care homes. .

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Could you not also read that example in the opposite way?

That people have, on average, been overly cautious rather than less. A pub that was about to lose an unprecedented amount of money closing before it was told to, sounds like a fantastic example of acting for the benefit of society, rather than personal greed.

From a quick Google, I can't find corroborating evidence of this, but Stephen Bush on the New Statesman podcast has repeatedly said that the government have been surprised by the number of businesses that have temporarily closed down. They expected more restaurants to operate as takeaways, more businesses to continue operating with a skeleton crew, and generally, far fewer people to access the furlough scheme than have done so. I think the general tone of indignation at the public is highly unfair, and doesn't reflect how 95%+ of people have behaved over the last two months.

That’s a fair point. People more likely to err on the side of caution. I hope you’re right. As is usually the way on social media, it’s the outliers getting all the attention. Which distorts the reality of what most people are like.

 

[Kag]

I think you’re being a little harsh about the moral superiority motivation. I think it’s a combination of a sense of injustice or unfairness (“I’m sticking to the rules, so why aren’t they?”) along with a genuine concern about the virus getting out of hand if taking the piss becomes more widespread.

I can’t really comment on any inherent flaw of the British public but people taking the piss seems to be happening in lots of different countries, not just the UK. Our PM talked about “anticipatory behaviour”, referencing the way many pubs and restaurants in Ireland closed their doors before they were told to, because they knew closure was inevitable. The same behaviour on the way out of lockdown could be absolutely disastrous.

I don’t think he is. It’s beyond tedious at this point. I can’t wait for tonight to see which of my neighbours can beep their horn the loudest, or put the biggest dent in their soup bowl.

There will be people who have identified inappropriate behaviour and dealt with as per the guidance. All power to them. But we live in a world in which doing the right thing doesn’t appear to have much merit, unless it is accompanied with high doses of self-gratification and widespread adulation.

The UK populace has more than done its bit, which is particularly impressive given that our leaders are woefully incompetent and our top scientific advisor is, to quote another phrase, hanging out the back of it.

 

[Wolverine]

London is about 20% of the cases in just England. North West is 21k cases, London 25k, seems to tie in equally with the population numbers of each area and goes against the tube and London being a dense area etc.

confirmed cases. doesn't include number who were asymptomatic or self-isolated without getting formally tested

 

[africanspur]

I think you’re being a little harsh about the moral superiority motivation. I think it’s a combination of a sense of injustice or unfairness (“I’m sticking to the rules, so why aren’t they?”) along with a genuine concern about the virus getting out of hand if taking the piss becomes more widespread.

I can’t really comment on any inherent flaw of the British public but people taking the piss seems to be happening in lots of different countries, not just the UK. Our PM talked about “anticipatory behaviour”, referencing the way many pubs and restaurants in Ireland closed their doors before they were told to, because they knew closure was inevitable. The same behaviour on the way out of lockdown could be absolutely disastrous.

I appreciate that but a lot of it seems to be complaining about something that, at least as far as I can see, is mostly non existent.

Reading this thread, I essentially get the impression that The Brits are roaming around, doing whatever the hell they please (and I guess the Irish to some extent too). I appreciate that this is partly simply because of the fact most posters come from those 2 countries.

But it doesn't really tally with what I personally am seeing. Or the statistics seemingly. 5% of normal underground journeys undertaken. In a global city of 9 million! When our lockdown has been far more lightly policed than most.

There's some genuine ire but I think directing it at normal people as a whole (and, imo, it often takes on a bit of a class undertone too) is not right.

As I said though, I'm just going by what's happening in London, I haven't been outside since this all started. For all I know, Manchester/ Leeds/ North Wales etc etc may be very different.

 

[golden_blunder]

There has already been a huge relaxation in North Wales , people out and about everywhere . Could cause problems very quickly as the NHS is stretched at the best of times . It has a knock on effect with locals too, theres been a few pubs raided for letting people in the back door for lock ins .

It’s probably @Sparky Rhiwabon hes desperate for his pint!

 

[Wolverine]

The UK populace has more than done its bit, which is particularly impressive given that our leaders are woefully incompetent and our top scientific advisor is, to quote another phrase, hanging out the back of it.

We have done well that's true.

I am getting an uptick in anxiety symptoms with what's head on Sunday evening and from next Monday onward. I just can't see any other way other than us hitting another peak of this thing. Testing is marginally better but no logistical planning demonstrated about how to implement quarantine measures to contact trace.The NHS app is being trialled in Isle of Wight, by the time teething problems or proof of concept is established this thing will gain a foothold again in our communities.

Discussing this earlier today after finishing a night shift and went through a fairly busy city centre to pick up a few things which is probably because of the upcoming long weekend. A lot of my colleagues are experiencing the same with regards to anxiety symptoms (I think I genuinely had palpitations), think a lot of us working in healthcare (and probably general population) are going to have elements of adjustment disorder, PTSD or agoraphobia now.

 

[Wumminator]

I appreciate that but a lot of it seems to be complaining about something that, at least as far as I can see, is mostly non existent.

Reading this thread, I essentially get the impression that The Brits are roaming around, doing whatever the hell they please (and I guess the Irish to some extent too). I appreciate that this is partly simply because of the fact most posters come from those 2 countries.

But it doesn't really tally with what I personally am seeing. Or the statistics seemingly. 5% of normal underground journeys undertaken. In a global city of 9 million! When our lockdown has been far more lightly policed than most.

There's some genuine ire but I think directing it at normal people as a whole (and, imo, it often takes on a bit of a class undertone too) is not right.

As I said though, I'm just going by what's happening in London, I haven't been outside since this all started. For all I know, Manchester/ Leeds/ North Wales etc etc may be very different.

Manchester seems very quiet. I have been working some days and traffic is non existent.

 

[africanspur]

I don't know how anyone in Italy visited parks, because they've been physically closed with barriers. You'd have to be making a determined effort to get in.

That was my confusion.

Which brought me to 3 conclusions:

1) The data is incorrect
2) The Italian lockdown is not as stringent as I'd been led to believe
3) Or in the country where going out for a 'bad' reason has essentially been temporarily made illegal, 20% of the normal park visits are still happening.

We know 2 is not true and we'll assume 1 isn't either. So for me, the takeaway from that graph is that, despite very little policing of the lockdown (few sensationalist videos of police asking people to get off their own front lawns aside), Brits are still choosing themselves to visit the park less, even though its one of the few things they are allowed to. The flipside is that 20% of normal park visits in Italy are still ongoing, despite significant barriers to doing so.

Plus the rightly much lauded Germans have actually been visiting the park more often than usual, despite a still relatively high by global standards death/million population statistic.

 

[Smores]

He wouldn't, parliament would just add people who know nothing on the subject around the table and those people have an interest to score political points where no one should.

Ministers in general are supposed to inform parliament before the media in the UK. It's a question of precedent and scrutiny rather than input but as long as the opposition have been kept informed then doesn't matter too much.

 

[Brwned]

I also don't understand the fascination with parks. London is thankfully a very green city, with many excellent parks. That's been hugely beneficial in lockdown, allowing people to walk and exercise away from roads where you're more likely to have to brush past people. Many also live in flats or places without gardens, again meaning that parks are a great way to spend time outside in an open plan area.

Do you really believe that there has been a material spread in the virus from people walking or jogging past each other in parks? Maybe I'm wrong, but it doesn't seem the type of environment that would spread the virus.

Parks are the best proxy we have for general outdoor movement, and the story is pretty straightforward: when people say the "streets are pretty much empty", that means something entirely different in the UK than it does in France, Spain or Italy. We live in a world full of international news so when people talk about people in the UK not taking the lockdown as seriously as they could, it's because we don't just have anecdotal evidence from our local area, we have behavioural data from other countries in a similar situation. It's an observable fact that there is significantly more outdoor movement. It's also an observable fact that the decline in cases is much slower in the UK than it was in any of those three countries, despite all of them having big cities, full of flats without gardens, with beautiful parks. It's up to people and governments to decide what the right balance of trade-offs is. I sit overlooking a small London park in a flat without a garden and the streets are clearly less busy but they're not remotely close to empty. People are going outside and it's likely that's part of why the decline in cases is taking much longer. I think on balance that's a good thing given we've been able to do so without overwhelming the system, but it has adverse effects and I think it's reasonable that other people place more importance on the adverse effects than the benefits.

 

[TMDaines]

I'm going to go slightly against the majority opinion on this thread/ forum, where so many posts seem to be about how terribly the British government have done (generally agree) and how stupid/ spoilt/ insert negative adjective here the British public are.

I think the characterisations of British people in this regard is a bit unfair. Perhaps the rest of the UK is some huge rave but in London, the streets are pretty much empty for the most part outside of peak hours (even then, much less busy). I've just received an email from TFL saying underground and train journeys within London are down by 95% and bus journeys are down by 85% (even though it is now free).

Polls seem to show we're currently amongst the populations most eager to stay in lockdown.

Of course there will always be some idiots. And there will will always be exceptions to people following well, especially as our lockdown has been, to some extent, a light touch.

I'm just not seeing this flagrant and widespread disregard of the rules though I have to say.

Driving to and from hospital twice per day, I’ve yet to be 3rd or deeper in a queue at a junction. Roads are very quiet relatively.

I think the majority are adhering to the rules, or at the very least operating within the spirit of them. There will always be a minority who think they are above the rules, who either don’t understand them, or just don’t care. I sadly know two people: one who is regularly having her older daughter and grandson round, and someone else who has had their parents round a few times for social distancing in the garden.

 

[TMDaines]

My employer is openly discussing the possibility of no required return this year.

We’ve told our team, NHS/LA healthcare commissioners and project managers, that it is increasingly likely people will continue working from home for most, if not all of, 2020. Why would we possibly have people commuting who can work remotely?

 

[JPRouve]

Ministers in general are supposed to inform parliament before the media in the UK. It's a question of precedent and scrutiny rather than input but as long as the opposition have been kept informed then doesn't matter too much.

Of course they should be informed but I don't believe that it was the point made since Steve talked about debating. As far as I know sharing information is a legal obligation.

 

[Smores]

I appreciate that but a lot of it seems to be complaining about something that, at least as far as I can see, is mostly non existent.

Reading this thread, I essentially get the impression that The Brits are roaming around, doing whatever the hell they please (and I guess the Irish to some extent too). I appreciate that this is partly simply because of the fact most posters come from those 2 countries.

But it doesn't really tally with what I personally am seeing. Or the statistics seemingly. 5% of normal underground journeys undertaken. In a global city of 9 million! When our lockdown has been far more lightly policed than most.

There's some genuine ire but I think directing it at normal people as a whole (and, imo, it often takes on a bit of a class undertone too) is not right.

As I said though, I'm just going by what's happening in London, I haven't been outside since this all started. For all I know, Manchester/ Leeds/ North Wales etc etc may be very different.

Aren't you also moaning about something equally mostly nonexistent though?

I'm not on facebook so perhaps it's more prevalent there but I'm not seeing where all these people are apparently claiming that brits at large aren't behaving?

 

[SteveJ]

Downing Street lobby briefing:

'No 10 seems worried about the expectations raised by some of these newspaper stories, because the spokesman made a point of stressing that anything happening next week would be “very limited”. He told reporters:

"You all need to be very clear: any easement to the guidelines next week will be very limited. We are at a critical moment in the fight against the virus and we will not do anything which risks throwing away the effort and sacrifices of the British public."'

Boris Johnson:

"We are not going to do anything that risks a second peak. We will advance with maximum caution in order to protect the NHS and to save lives. We will be guided at every step by the science and the data and we will closely track the impact of any easing of the social distancing measures and and will not hesitate to tighten the rules if required."

 

[TMDaines]

I don’t think he is. It’s beyond tedious at this point. I can’t wait for tonight to see which of my neighbours can beep their horn the loudest, or put the biggest dent in their soup bowl.

There will be people who have identified inappropriate behaviour and dealt with as per the guidance. All power to them. But we live in a world in which doing the right thing doesn’t appear to have much merit, unless it is accompanied with high doses of self-gratification and widespread adulation.

The UK populace has more than done its bit, which is particularly impressive given that our leaders are woefully incompetent and our top scientific advisor is, to quote another phrase, hanging out the back of it.

Already looking forward to Poppygate during lockdown.

 

[CassiusClaymore]

Downing Street lobby briefing:

'No 10 seems worried about the expectations raised by some of these newspaper stories, because the spokesman made a point of stressing that anything happening next week would be “very limited”. He told reporters:

"You all need to be very clear: any easement to the guidelines next week will be very limited. We are at a critical moment in the fight against the virus and we will not do anything which risks throwing away the effort and sacrifices of the British public."'

Boris Johnson:

"We are not going to do anything that risks a second peak. We will advance with maximum caution in order to protect the NHS and to save lives. We will be guided at every step by the science and the data and we will closely track the impact of any easing of the social distancing measures and and will not hesitate to tighten the rules if required."

Good.

 

[DomesticTadpole]

Downing Street lobby briefing:

'No 10 seems worried about the expectations raised by some of these newspaper stories, because the spokesman made a point of stressing that anything happening next week would be “very limited”. He told reporters:

"You all need to be very clear: any easement to the guidelines next week will be very limited. We are at a critical moment in the fight against the virus and we will not do anything which risks throwing away the effort and sacrifices of the British public."'

Boris Johnson:

"We are not going to do anything that risks a second peak. We will advance with maximum caution in order to protect the NHS and to save lives. We will be guided at every step by the science and the data and we will closely track the impact of any easing of the social distancing measures and and will not hesitate to tighten the rules if required."

They are talking sense for once.