Yeah - should have said unprecedented in my lifetime. Hope my kids will never see one of these again.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
How many deaths do we think we’ll see worldwide?
Hopefully under 5 million (current season). One month ago I thought it was going to be much worse. In countries where it is hard to mitigate (India, most African countries) I am afraid it is going to be particularly bad.
That would be a major victory IMO - stupid though that sounds.
I fear a much higher total but I hope you are right.
Yep, I know. Just a month ago I thought that it will easily reach tens of millions, maybe even on the hundreds. However, with the mitigation happening everywhere, I hope the numbers will be much lower, maybe in that region.
Of course, I said for this season. When the constraints get relaxed, the numbers will increase again. I hope countries are seriously thinking and having plans on what to do once we are on the other part of the curve, and how to prevent it happening again without having catastrophic economical consequences (until we all get vaccinated).
We really need a vaccine and/or an effective anti-viral ASAP
A redistribution of wealth is a good thing in this circumstance.
The Tories have been very liberal socialist in the last few weeks. Good on them.
Using the state to save British capitalism after a decade of austerity is a funny way of saying socialism. Also I think it's pretty clear why they are having a go at footballers and not their party donors.
We will not abandon you - the last line. If it wasn't sad, it would be lol-worthy.
At the same time, it is the correct decision. Obviously, if the governments didn't suck, they would have invested much more in medicine and disease prevention and then everybody would have the needed care. But if there is one ventilator, with one person having 10% chance of surviving, and the other having 70% chance, it makes sense to give it to the second person.
I hope that those who can depend on the other members of the family stay at home all the time, get isolated and get groceries from their family, then don't touch the food for a week. It is extremely dangerous to be old, unfortunately.
Tottenham, Newcastle et al are in the news a lot recently for furloughing their non-playing staff. That's why football clubs and their playing staff have been brought up.
I don't care about the party as much as I care about the policies being enacted (or in this case, talked about in a news conference).
Here in vancouver people don't take it seriously enough IMO. There are cars everywhere and mostly no masks in the supermarkets. Im the most careless person in a normal life even too much for most people but now I am getting too paranoid
Last edited:
I hear you. But a longtime ago, I learned that you can‘t do much about other people actions and behaviour. The only thing you can control is your own actions. Hopefully this also sets examples for others. Stay safe and healthy.
Jeez, I had to edit my message. Yeah, you take care also
Well then why not criticise the owners instead ? The furloughing of non playing staff wasn't a decision made by the players but one made by owners like Mike Ashley. I've mentioned this already but it's worth saying again, a career in football is one of the few ways working people in Britain can truly see the benefits of real wealth and money. For the fact alone they are hated by the tories, it's nothing but the lowest level of conservative populism.
You might want to think about the recently unemployed such as workers on zero hours contracts or the NHS staff who haven't got enough safety equipment if you care about policy. Considering quite a lot of British people left their living rooms last night to bang pots and clap in the front garden, like pre industrial peasantry trying to ward off evil spirits, I'm not expecting a lot of critical thinking at the moment but you are basically applauding a party who's covered the country in dog shit and broken glass for the past decade for now coming to the conclusion it might be best to start using a mop.
''It must be admitted that the English people are at present doing their utmost to justify the low estimate in which their rulers hold them'' - James Connolly.
Last edited:
Honestly, don't lose your powers of rational thinking in this emergency. The trouble is we can't receive information easily about the health profiles of those infected and who have died in every country for obvious reasons - it's not possible at this point for the public. There are reasons for everything.
Yep, now nothing makes sense for me. There is simply no way that it didn't affect Turkey in December already, or January the latest considering how easy it spreads in Europe even during lockdowns, and considering the number of tourists in Istanbul, and especially having the direct flight to Wuhan.
Also, there is really no way that the Turkey wouldn't notice these cases earlier. Nothing makes sense anymore.
One of the key differences between countries is their political systems. China could get a grip by doing what it does usually - curtailing the activities of its citizens.
Brave souls from Wuhan on social media and other online sources told us the truth - people were having their doors barred from outside and this just wasn't in some parts of Wuhan.
People who worked in neighboring provinces were shut forcibly in their apartments with a warning sign 'This person/family has come back from Wuhan.' Some were left to starve to death by neighbours. The local police/army/snitch brigades dealt swiftly with so called 'troublemakers' who were asking questions or whatever. They were put into vehicles and driven off God knows where. I'm not a China basher but their political masters at all levels are usually fudging data. One brave woman I watched told the truth - she said you can't get a bed or medicine or help even if you have money. The politically connected etc were treated.
Why on earth wouldn't an authoritarian Islamist Government in Turkey cover up cases? The secular state with a Muslim majority that was Turkey has given way to a dictatorship of sorts with an aggressive expansionist bent, engaged in open warfare against Syria which Turkey has invaded parts of as well as an open war against the Shia regime in Iran. Turkey called upon NATO to support it when it invaded Syria again and unleashed thousands of so-called refugees, many of whom fought in militias connected with extremists, at the Greek border. This is a sick, dangerous government that endorses rapes of its political opponents - talking men mostly here - in prison as one means of torture.
Do you really think Turkey is the kind of country where transparency is important? Japan is a kind of democracy along western lines although with a right wing government having members that are neo-fascists - many Japanese and foreigners really have no understanding of their ideology. It is has a relatively open legal system although there are some shocking aspects such as detention for two years on no charges etc and its 'success' in convictions comes from signed confessions with no lawyer allowed to be present. Japan covered up COVID-19 cases because of the Olympic Games - it has had no scruples about playing Russian Roulette with the lives of citizens and residents. It is still hiding information and still testing at woefully low numbers.
So why is anybody remotely surprised by Turkey's situation? It's really a no-brainer. Authoritarian, secretive and at the present expanding. Yet you're surprised by the COVID-19 situation there?
In which case you're posting in the wrong thread.
All of that should be in the Westminster Politics thread.
Because I knew that would trigger you, and I knew where you were heading.
Your posting is entirely predictable and consistently off-topic.
They didn't say how it was achievable. For as long as it takes to create a vaccine. Usually they observe human test subjects for sure effects and efficacy for 14 months but in this case it would seem the world can't wait. I think we'll see the best candidate wheeled out in a few short months.One off, two on? Sounds fexking grim.
For a year? How is that even achievable?
Oh Jesus is this the only kind of test available?
I thought there was a blood test...?
I'd rather just get Coronavirus
I live in Tokyo, Japan isn't 'doing well'. It has gambled on its citizens' and residents' health by not testing because it didn't want to have any problems before the Toky Olympics.
We had the first wave of the Wuhan Virus as it was known then back in January when business people came back to Japan from Wuhan and when the usual business was taking place with many Chinese people entering for business as well as a massive amount of tourists and lesser amounts of international students.
To be fair there was a general taking of precautions - hand sanitizer made available in many stores, put in restrooms where there was none previously, many people serving the public wore masks because the Japanese are used to wearing them to go sick to work and in the hay fever season, some companies went to remote work in February, some businesses including tourist attractions were cloed, schools were closed.
Unfortunately all the school closing did was result in high school and other teenaged students hanging out in popular areas making more crowds. Primary school students didn't ride the trains but they played close outdoors. I think some virus transmissions have come through those activities from asymptomatic cases but as people continue to be turned away as adults from clinics and won't be tested, testing young people and children is the last thing Japan is going to do. Then here in Tokyo a lot of people decided the emergency was over in March. They packed the trains again including outside rush hour and old people rode around too.
Since the Olympics delay was announced - surprise, surprise there are many more cases popping up. And the numbers still don't reflect the plausible reality as Japan refuses to test on any real scale for a population of 125 million. You can't find out where cases are unlike in the UK and other countries through simple online trackers. Only bits of information are being released here and there. Japan is also probably the most secretive developed country in the medical field as well as some others. Autopsies are not done as a rule and you can bet that there are deaths due to COVID-19 not being listed because of some other condition present.
Oh and I knew the figures for some other cities was laughable. I used to live in the biggest city down south-west and that is very popular with tourists and Japanese visitors. Until recently it was showing 5 cases - nonsense - and now there are more but testing would reveal the real scale. It was also reported in the news recently that authorities cannot track a fair number of cases - when you have secrecy and don't test and then isolate as a matter of course, guess what?
Yep, now nothing makes sense for me. There is simply no way that it didn't affect Turkey in December already, or January the latest considering how easy it spreads in Europe even during lockdowns, and considering the number of tourists in Istanbul, and especially having the direct flight to Wuhan.
Also, there is really no way that the Turkey wouldn't notice these cases earlier. Nothing makes sense anymore.
Exactly my sentiment with that first paragraph.
On the second bit, my idea is that it's been there for a while but the lack of a sharp increase in the mortality rate didn't trigger any alarm bells, and the theory is that it mutated since then and became deadlier. A lot of speculation here but somebody I know had something you would now certainly describe as Covid-19 (late last year) and its infection rate coupled with today's mass travel makes me think it had to have arrived long before the first official cases.
Anyone who had the flu can be described to have had Covid-19 symptoms. I mean, the symptoms of Covid-19 are coughing, sneezing, fever, dry throat and shortage of breath (which happens in more serious cases). Very similar to those of the flu.
If the virus was spreading so easily, it would not have mutated in something deadlier. I mean, some would have, but a virus that kills spreads more difficult than a virus who doesn't do too much harm, and eventually, the natural selection would have chosen the milder strains to dominate.
I thought sneezing wasn’t one of the symptoms?
Don't know about worldwide, but under 100k in the US I would think.
Isnt 200k the low side of the predictions for the US
I mean, who could have guessed this would happen......
If we assume 10% of the global population will catch it and the latest real death estimate of 0.66% is accurate enough, then ~5 million.
10% and 0.66% applied to the US gives 200k deaths in the US which is their hopeful projection, so probably not far off.
Last edited:
Yeah I thought it was literally a cough, fever, and loss of taste?
This!
Please don't get fooled by Japan's numbers. Very minimal testing being done here and numbers are kept a secret because of fear of losing the Olympics. The moment they got postponed we started seeing a slow surge in infected people (which is still very low btw). Japan is taking a massive gamble in not doing what other countries have done and keeping the country open.
Last weekend we were told to avoid any non-essential outings and guess what that did? feck all. Weather was horrid on Sunday which helped a bit, but many people were out drinking and partying on Friday and Saturday nights. No one cares because no one thinks they will get it. It's mental.
Btw, probably won't come as a surprise to any but it seems that a lot of those who are infected in Japan are under the age of 40 (I believe I saw it on the news yesterday, feel free to call me out if wrong)
I have friends who went back to South Korea for a few months because they don't trust Japan with this and I can't blame them..It's all very dodgy here and I fear it might get a lot worse than US, Italy etc..
India will be the key to those numbers. 1,34 billion people. If they manage to keep the infection to 10% of the population, which would be a feat in itself, then that means 134 million people gets infected. And almost none of them will get a respirator, and most of them not even a place in a hospital.
I am still worried the tally will be a lot higher than you guys think when this virus gets bad in poorer nations. Europe may have handled things in a bad way but at least we have the healthcare and wealth to turn things around. The poorer nations will need a lot of help to be able to minimize the effect of the virus. But all this is guessing. I can not see any positive news yet though since we have no proven medicines ready, no vaccine in a long time and supply chains for everything needed for protection and treatment is failing worldwide.
Well between you and Ryansgirl I am no longer puzzled. Thanks
Couldnt agree more @Dante . Everyone is entitled to an opinion but it does get very tiresome when people use every comment to try to ram home a political agenda.
Japan is the country that, putting Olympics aside, I would target on they would convenient for them to get rid of as much elderly population.
- Oldest population in the world
- One of the lowest birth dates in the world
- One of the lowest immigration rates in the developed countries
This makes the worst demographic pyramid in the world, in 2050, +65 will be the same as the population from 18-65, meaning they will have to pay the dependants and for their kids.
With their sense of duty and sacrifice, and of course with a good dose of tinfoil in my veins, would not be crazzy that they would take this "final solution"
A lot of countries will probably have much lower numbers due to low population density. Africa should drag the curve down I expect. As will China (even though their numbers are certainly bogus) and places like Taiwan, Korea.
But yeah, there are no real positive news and the wise approach is to stop grasping at this or that number to try and find security in a given position. We don't know the full scale of what is going on and will happen.
The silver linings are in the intangibles - what we learn from it as a society and people and so forth.
Countries to be developed are very difficult to see yet the outcome. They have less resources but they are way much younger. It barely have any effect with teenagers and Uganda, with an average age of under 16 years old, might be lucky enough. The same with India with and average age of 27. Then they are weaker for endemic illnesses, immunodeficiencies like AIDS and big populations with malnutrition that might affect how they can cope. Then there is climate differences (will see heat and humidity how a deterrence it is with the spread as we only saw it during later winter in northern hemisphere and late summer in southern hemisphere). There are to many factors to be discovered yet
But age seems to be a huge factor in COVID19, so lets hope for the best
Age really is massive. Covid-19 is often* a case of just tipping older people with multiple conditions over the edge.
• 70-80 account for 29% of deaths in Sweden
• 80-90 account for 42% of deaths in Sweden
• 90+ account for 19% of deaths in Sweden
*by “often” I’m talking 90% of deaths.
The “key” to keeping deaths down is to protect the elderly, but it’s proving almost impossible to keep it out of nursing homes. It’s a bastard of a virus.