And at the cost of how many lives?I listened to a podcast where an epidemiologist did a rough estimate on what it would it take to reach herd immunity without a vaccine. They figured at least 5 or 6 waves.
And at the cost of how many lives?I listened to a podcast where an epidemiologist did a rough estimate on what it would it take to reach herd immunity without a vaccine. They figured at least 5 or 6 waves.
I think there should be a strong consideration for gyms, some gyms at least, to stay open as long as they pass a Covid compliance test and can prove they have sufficient process to ensure distancing and hygiene measures are adequate.When I'm listening the radio and hearing people argue xyz should remain open due to mental health, I can't help but think a lot of people want us to believe we are less resilient than we are, for their own purposes (to stay open)
Is the mental health argument being used to try and save businesses that are on poor financial footing?
The study is of clinical and health care workers of whom only 100 tested positive in March and April, not of the general population and is therefore totally useless in my view.They have only tracked them for 6 months so far so they may well last much longer. Every person was found to have t-cells even if they had low or even no symptoms. People with worse symptoms had even more and hopefully the longevity as a result of a vaccine will be as good or better than these cases. So I'd say very good news as far as it goes.
Edit: Pogue posted about this yesterday as well. Or rather
https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4257These results provide reassurance that, although the titre of antibody to SARS-CoV-2 can fall below detectable levels within a few months of infection, a degree of immunity to the virus may be maintained. However, the critical question remains: do these persistent T cells provide efficient protection against re-infection?
Apologies, completely forgot about replying to these posts.It’s not just Europe and North America though. South America’s been absolutely hammered. India’s having a terrible time. Case numbers are peaking in Iran and Israel’s had a second full lockdown already.
We also somehow have close neighbours having very different experiences to other countries in the same region. Pakistan doesn’t seem to be having a second wave, or Saudi Arabia. And the continent of Africa is a patchwork of very different caseload graphs.
It’s very hard to work out why different countries are/aren’t having a second wave but there’s more to it than just Europe/North America making terrible decisions.
It’s probably easier to look at the very small number of countries that seem to be doing well. The common themes seem to be geographic isolation and low population density and/or prior experience of dealing with a novel viral epidemic.
Thanks for this data, very interesting.While both of these statements are true I'm not sure they tell the story you're alluding to. Business travel has dropped off a cliff everywhere and will recover much more slowly than leisure travel, so comparing business travel in Asia to leisure travel in Europe will only mislead.
From a quick glance at this data, people in Asia are travelling quite a lot on planes. There were 28m seats available on the w/c 19th October in APAC compared to 43m a year earlier, while there 11m seats available in Europe compared to 29m a year earlier. In other words the drop-off in European flights has been much more severe, even now. Or if you look at this data, Asian travel has been steadily increasing to now be the top travellers. That's domestic and international overall, and it's just the case that a larger proportion of European flights have always been international, so it's difficult to do a side by side comparison regionally.
If you take Japan as an example, 140k seats were available for international flights vs 1.2m a year earlier, whereas for the UK 930k seats were available vs 3m a year earlier. So Japan's international demand fell to 12% of normal levels while the UK's fell to 32%. And generally speaking European borders have been open much longer and to a much wider range of countries than Asia's. But then if the notion is that movement of people across medium-long distances through airports and planes is a major source of transmission, then domestic flights are still a risk factor and Asia are doing a lot more of that at the moment. And if you assume that most people are moving from areas of higher community transmission to lower community transmission, or maintaining a similar level, then the end destination doesn't matter all that much.
What would make a difference is the kinds of holidays people take and the propensity to do things in large groups, and from the data I've seen whether it was Asian travel (which has a tradition of large group cultural tours) or European travel (which obviously leans more to large group partying), there was much more travelling among small groups than usual. At the end of the day, most transmission that we're able to track comes from within our own borders. It's only the countries that have managed to keep it under control exceptionally well within their own borders (e.g. Germany) that can point to a significant proportion being imported in.
I think the general pattern is Europe are flying more internationally, Asia are flying more domestically, Asia are flying overall. Those are the trends before covid and now, and Asian travel is consistently increasing while Europe's is now on the decline. But like you say it was more about the sentiment than the specifics. Asian travel gradually increasing while Europe's spiked in the summer, in line with the theory that things were back to normal here while in Asia it was a cautious return.Thanks for this data, very interesting.
Doesn't the second set show that flights in the AP region are down by the same amount as Europe for domestic travel but more for international travel?
Regardless, I was being a little flippant. It isn't so much that I was saying that flights and travel are the major driver of new infections, more the impression that it gave off generally that we'd beaten the virus and could essentially go back to something like life as normal across the continent.
The article I posted in the comment above says a bit more eloquently what I was trying to say generally I think.
Nah. One of my neighbours is severely autistic and goes and sits in the same cafe every single day at the same time. Closing that cafe is destroying her mental health, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't close cafes.I think there should be a strong consideration for gyms, some gyms at least, to stay open as long as they pass a Covid compliance test and can prove they have sufficient process to ensure distancing and hygiene measures are adequate.
Gyms and working out are in my view essential for some people’s mental health, mine included. I’m fortunate that I have a gym at home and have been able to carry on working out but I’d be struggling if that wasn’t the case.
Cafe's not quite the same in my opinion, hard as I'm sure it is on your neighbour and the thought of your neighbour is heartbreaking. Gyms are of great benefit, both physical and mental, to us as individuals. They're not just a pointless tentacle of capitalism and in my view are bordering on necessary as some people use them for pure health reasons. I've seen how some (some, though not all) gyms have dealt with the current situation and don't feel they are necessarily a Covid breeding ground.Nah. One of my neighbours is severely autistic and goes and sits in the same cafe every single day at the same time. Closing that cafe is destroying her mental health, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't close cafes.
If gyms are closed, go for a run.
I just don't really see what can be done in a gym that can't be mirrored in some way at home or outside? Sure, you might not have access to heavy weights or specific machines at home or in the park, but you can quite easily do a decent workout that gets the heart going and the muscles working. Is it ideal? No. We're all having to give up cherished routines and adapt to this shitty situation. Someone might not be able to obtain their peak physique or rack up the gains or play their favourite sport at home... but that's hardly the priority in a pandemic. Keeping fit is perfectly possible.Cafe's not quite the same in my opinion, hard as I'm sure it is on your neighbour and the thought of your neighbour is heartbreaking. Gyms are of great benefit, both physical and mental, to us as individuals. They're not just a pointless tentacle of capitalism and in my view are bordering on necessary as some people use them for pure health reasons. I've seen how some (some, though not all) gyms have dealt with the current situation and don't feel they are necessarily a Covid breeding ground.
Even so, I understand it can't be a totally selective endeavour, and I am very pro-lockdown but I wouldn't be concerned, or surprised if some gyms we allowed some slack if they could prove compliance. Going for a run isn't possible for some people.
There's a very clear playbook to dealing with the virus - get the incidence very low with early (NZ) or harsh lockdowns (China). Keep incidence low with extremely tight border / quarantine requirements. And when you do get cases that pop up, take a local blanket approach to testing and strict lockdowns (Australia).Apologies, completely forgot about replying to these posts.
Its true that those other countries are having a terrible time of it too, though perhaps only Iran and Israel of those have had true second waves, as opposed to continuations of first waves. The likes of Mexico and Argentina have never properly gotten case numbers down in the way that we managed across much of Europe and are just stuck in an increasingly severe 1st wave it seems.
I think the bolded part is certainly very important, though it is still pretty galling that we sacrificed so much in the first set of lockdowns and seemingly have been unable to use that and subsequent lull to build systems to deal with it, on top of what should already be very efficient PH infrastructures.
Saw this interesting....and slightly inflammatory! article yesterday in the Irish times that describes what I was trying to say in a more articulate manner. The first comment is just so classic as well.
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/...-made-a-mess-of-handling-the-crisis-1.4395473
The West has failed – US and Europe have made a mess of handling the crisis
Western leaders have been insular slow learners at every stage of the Covid pandemic
And I agree but there are lots of old people using gyms to retain health and some muscular strength under supervision of qualified professionals. Lots of people in some kind of rehab. I was / still am a well qualified PT with a medical referral qualification and there will be lots of people affected physically by the closure of gyms.Someone might not be able to obtain their peak physique or rack up the gains at home... but that's hardly the priority in a pandemic. Keeping fit is perfectly possible.
It's a fair point. I'm not denying there are health consequences to closing gyms and other sports facilities. Hopefully they're not shut too long.And I agree but there are lots of old people using gyms to retain health and some muscular strength under supervision of qualified professionals. Lots of people in some kind of rehab. I was / still am a well qualified PT with a medical referral qualification and there will be lots of people affected physically by the closure of gyms.
But, I'm not contesting the decision, just pointing out that gyms could be considered necessary business.
Like your neighbours cafe eh? There's so many heartbreaking stories currently.It's a fair point. I'm not denying there are health consequences to closing gyms and other sports facilities. Hopefully they're not shut too long.
Why won't they let you work from home?Can't wait to still be working in the office from new regs Thursday despite there being absolutely no need for us to be there and all being capable of working from home fine. Been personally around 3 cases/outbreaks in the past 5 weeks and all could have been avoided if people were allowed to work from home ffs.
Feck knows. With construction being encouraged to stay open and our office 'being covid safe' because they've stuck a few screens up I presume they've just decided they're happy to keep us all in.Why won't they let you work from home?
I know that people who are against lockdowns bang the mental health drum far too often but I think getting gyms/amateur sports back to normal should be a priority. Not because I’m worried about a huge outbreak of clinical depression if they remain closed but they do provide joy to huge swathes of the population.I just don't really see what can be done in a gym that can't be mirrored in some way at home or outside? Sure, you might not have access to heavy weights or specific machines at home or in the park, but you can quite easily do a decent workout that gets the heart going and the muscles working. Is it ideal? No. We're all having to give up cherished routines and adapt to this shitty situation. Someone might not be able to obtain their peak physique or rack up the gains or play their favourite sport at home... but that's hardly the priority in a pandemic. Keeping fit is perfectly possible.
Im in exactly the same boat mate.Feck knows. With construction being encouraged to stay open and our office 'being covid safe' because they've stuck a few screens up I presume they've just decided they're happy to keep us all in.
Victoria had an anti-lockdown demo of just over 400 assorted loons and white supremacists today (despite lock down being on the way out) and the police arrested 404 of them for breeching covid laws.There's a very clear playbook to dealing with the virus - get the incidence very low with early (NZ) or harsh lockdowns (China). Keep incidence low with extremely tight border / quarantine requirements. And when you do get cases that pop up, take a local blanket approach to testing and strict lockdowns (Australia).
Unfortunately we didn't have the appetite/will to make the sacrifices in the West. So we're going to be stuck in this paradigm of teetering between soaring infections and constraining the economy. Whereas other countries with the will to pursue an eradication approach have much better health and economic outcomes.
Clearly, your safety should be paramount, but if the staff are 15% less productive at home, that's a problem that might result in you not having a job to come back to, if this drags on.Im in exactly the same boat mate.
I have literally just come here to ask if an office can be legitimately classed as 'Covid secure'
My boss wants everyone in the office as productivity suffers 15% at home.
Boris said to work from home if we can, and we can. He did not say to work from home unless your office is covid secure!?!? Is that even a thing?
I think the problem with this, as with all of these suggestions, is that the confines of what you're deeming acceptable socialising are dictated largely by your lifestyle (or at least, as much as I understand what your lifestyle is). Whilst I don't have any objection to the idea that standing around on the side of a football pitch is basically safe (as is probably playing the sport itself!) it seems to me that you could make the same argument for basically any outdoor activity.I know that people who are against lockdowns bang the mental health drum far too often but I think getting gyms/amateur sports back to normal should be a priority. Not because I’m worried about a huge outbreak of clinical depression if they remain closed but they do provide joy to huge swathes of the population.
Taking part in (or watching your kids take part in) sport is a massive part of what makes life bearable for a lot of people. And it leaves a big hole in their routine now they’re gone. Without these weekly dopamine hits everyone is going to get more and more jaded and less willing to stick to the government recommendations. Plus they’re done while sober, so we can generally rely on sensible precautions to be taken, which doesn’t apply to most other ways we might seek out dopamine squirts.
Small world view buddy.Cafe's not quite the same in my opinion, hard as I'm sure it is on your neighbour and the thought of your neighbour is heartbreaking. Gyms are of great benefit, both physical and mental, to us as individuals. They're not just a pointless tentacle of capitalism and in my view are bordering on necessary as some people use them for pure health reasons. I've seen how some (some, though not all) gyms have dealt with the current situation and don't feel they are necessarily a Covid breeding ground.
Even so, I understand it can't be a totally selective endeavour, and I am very pro-lockdown but I wouldn't be concerned, or surprised if some gyms we allowed some slack if they could prove compliance. Going for a run isn't possible for some people.
My following post maybe summed up my position more clearly and it wasn't for my own gain, I am no longer in that business, so telling me I have a small world view is wrong, it wasn't what my intention was. I think there is a valid discussion to be had for gyms if they are catering to those that need prescribed, instructed and supervised exercise.Small world view buddy.
I hate Whetherspoons with a passion. Always a last resort.
But my grandfather went there daily for the last decade of his life. Spent hours drinking 99p Doom Bar with his 80+ year old friends and his brother. Guys that fought in the war. Worked hard in factories. Blue collar fella that gave my mum a good life and did his best in life.
Taking away his ability to go to a pub would have almost certainly have ruined a year of his life.
I don’t believe Pubs should be open. But to many, they’re as valuable as a cafe and a gym and a park.
People try to reduce these things to binary positions. It’s stupid.
We all live our own existence. To promote our own needs and views should not involve reducing others position.
The idea that you cannot get what you need from a gym, without going there, is false. I respect your order of priority. But we’re all wrong headed.
But there are a lot of people who use gyms for rehab/health reasons who won't be going there until the strain on health services and the risks of doing "anything" outside the home are reduced again - including the ones who need help most urgently. Things like rehab for stroke victims and for hip replacement patients following surgery simply isn't happening (and hasn't been for months) across many regions, supervised physio for post-op cancer patients has mostly turned into watching a youtube video and reading a leaflet and (if you're lucky) a zoom session.The last sentence is wrong. For people like me, yes, I can do what I need to do elsewhere. I actually have my own gym so there has been very little impact on my fitness regime. There are, however, people who use gyms for rehab and actual health reasons.
Like I've said before, I get it. There's not one post in this thread from me that would indicate I'm not in agreement with lockdown. All I was meaning to state was that out of all businesses that have had to close, allowing well run gyms to open would surprise and concern me the least because in my opinion they are as close to being an essential service as anything and provide massive physical and mental health benefits at a time where both are at a premium. I hate to quote myself but see below.But there are a lot of people who use gyms for rehab/health reasons who won't be going there until the strain on health services and the risks of doing "anything" outside the home are reduced again - including the ones who need help most urgently. Things like rehab for stroke victims and for hip replacement patients following surgery simply isn't happening (and hasn't been for months) across many regions, supervised physio for post-op cancer patients has mostly turned into watching a youtube video and reading a leaflet and (if you're lucky) a zoom session.
What we're talking about in the case of whole sectors of the economy and of social life are situations where it's not proven if they spread the virus in any significant way or not - tiny little additions to the R value perhaps. The trouble is that we're in a pandemic where the psychology of social distancing and avoiding human contact relies on us to play along. "All in it together" might mean it doesn't matter about the details or the specifics, but it matters massively in the overall response of people. The more the world seems to be shut, the easier it is to encourage people to think in terms of minimising their personal interactions and getting the numbers down again.
The more special cases and exceptions there are, the more people get irritated and irrational about the overall concept - the likelier they are to "cheat" or to rationalise why their conduct is ok, because "it's no different to" whatever is happening.
Even so, I understand it can't be a totally selective endeavour, and I am very pro-lockdown but I wouldn't be concerned, or surprised if some gyms we allowed some slack if they could prove compliance. Going for a run isn't possible for some people.
I literally said I hate Whetherspoons, then supported their function as part of society.My following post maybe summed up my position more clearly and it wasn't for my own gain, I am no longer in that business, so telling me I have a small world view is wrong, it wasn't what my intention was. I think there is a valid discussion to be had for gyms if they are catering to those that need prescribed, instructed and supervised exercise.
The last sentence is wrong. For people like me, yes, I can do what I need to do elsewhere. I actually have my own gym so there has been very little impact on my fitness regime. There are, however, people who use gyms for rehab and actual health reasons.
Loads of places operating in the same manner, I'm hearing. Nobody is taking this anywhere near as seriously as they did in March, despite the prognosis being worse. The rules being inexplicably more lax than they were last time makes it easy for employers to dick their employees about and needlessly put them at risk. The decision to do a half-arsed lockdown at this precise moment is going to cause more damage than last time to retail and restaurants etc and be nowhere near worth it as they've not done enough to actually stop people going to places where they can spread the virus. I can't see this winter being anythong other than a complete disaster.Can't wait to still be working in the office from new regs Thursday despite there being absolutely no need for us to be there and all being capable of working from home fine. Been personally around 3 cases/outbreaks in the past 5 weeks and all could have been avoided if people were allowed to work from home ffs.
No, I felt no criticism fella and everything is contextual I know. I'll reiterate that I'm not actually on my soapbox with my megaphone, shouting 'Gyms must open' but as someone who used to work in that industry and especially in prescribed exercise I'm aware of the importance of keeping certain individuals moving and, although I'm a believer in the current social restrictions, I could understand gyms being given some leeway if they could prove to be run correctly and safely.I literally said I hate Whetherspoons, then supported their function as part of society.
We’re all small minded at times and all support our own view.
Sorry if you felt I was criticising you. We’re all in the same boat. I was just providing context for how we all feel differently about ‘what’s important’.
Nuthin but love for you Brutha
Definitely. My girlfriend works in a department of 8 people all in the same fairly small office room. 4 of which are her department managers or near enough, 2 of them tested positive so they and the 2 other managers worked from home yet they wouldn't let my mrs and the 3 others work from home and then a week later would you believe it she tests positive. Of course they've still not changed anything and she was back in yesterday which is the first day she could stop isolating from. It's ridiculous.Loads of places operating in the same manner, I'm hearing. Nobody is taking this anywhere near as seriously as they did in March, despite the prognosis being worse. The rules being inexplicably more lax than they were last time makes it easy for employers to dick their employees about and needlessly put them at risk. The decision to do a half-arsed lockdown at this precise moment is going to cause more damage than last time to retail and restaurants etc and be nowhere near worth it as they've not done enough to actually stop people going to places where they can spread the virus. I can't see this winter being anythong other than a complete disaster.
My dad is lucky in that he works in an office on his own. But he doesn't need to be there either. He started off shielding in March because of health issues. But now, with the situation every bit as bad as it was back then, he's back on site and in work, where he uses a computer to do tasks he can do remotely. I've no idea why, but most managers are obsessed with the idea that you need to be in the office to do work, and they need to have that physical control over their staff. I know from experience that when I am in the office at work and it's a quiet period, I can do next to nothing in a day, so it's just a case of being seen to turn up, and has no effect on productivity.Definitely. My girlfriend works in a department of 8 people all in the same fairly small office room. 4 of which are her department managers or near enough, 2 of them tested positive so they and the 2 other managers worked from home yet they wouldn't let my mrs and the 3 others work from home and then a week later would you believe it she tests positive. Of course they've still not changed anything and she was back in yesterday which is the first day she could stop isolating from. It's ridiculous.
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I think a lot of that depends on what you do in the rest of your life - whether you're living alone, working from home and keeping yourself to yourself otherwise, etc.Case numbers are not great at all here (Switzerland), yet bars and restaurants are still open. Can one be blamed for going to a bar and following the guidelines, or should people take a bit more responsibility on themselves and refrain from going?
Its addiction in my opinion.Case numbers are not great at all here (Switzerland), yet bars and restaurants are still open. Can one be blamed for going to a bar and following the guidelines, or should people take a bit more responsibility on themselves and refrain from going?