The painful thing is that when you look at the points, we could have got to fourth if we never made feck ups against the teams we should have beaten like Southampton, Fulham, West Brom and the list goes on. One of my biggest criticisms of Moyes this year is that he just doesn't know how to beat the big teams, but we didn't even need to do that to get 4th this year. All we had to do was keep it consistent against the poor teams that we should have beaten, and we failed to do that.
The Race for Fourth Place
- Thread starter KiD MoYeS
- Start date
Anyone think we could actually sneak fourth place now...? :/
Arsenal
West Ham (H)
Hull (A)
Newcastle (H)
West Brom (H)
Norwich (A)
It's Arsenal's to lose and they're doing a good job of giving it up so far. However, it is still extremely optimistic to think Arsenal can drop 7 Points from those games.. However, at the same time, I could see them drawing any of them. Perhaps two draws while they're in a slump, and a last day defeat to struggling Norwich who have a good home record?
Everton
Sunderland (A)
Crystal Palace (H)
Man Utd (H)
Southampton (A)
Man City (H)
Hull (A)
Everton are right at it at the moment, playing very well. However, there is every possibility of it crashing and burning. Sunderland will be scrapping for it and beat them in the previous game, so not out of the question that they draw. I'd still expect them to beat a revitalised Palace, but if we go to Goodison and the other teams involved in the race for fourth have dropped points before us, and win, then it is wide open. Everton then have to face a very good Southampton away (another draw?) and a Man City side who want the title badly (easily could be a loss, possibly a draw) along with a final day at Hull that won't be easy. We probably need Everton to implode, however, as losses to United and City would be harmful, but we'd still need them to lose another game or draw two in order to move ahead.
Man Utd
Everton (A)
Norwich (H)
Sunderland (H)
Hull (H)
Southampton (A)
Got to win all five, it's as simple as that. 72 Points could well be enough, even if I'd have to fancy Arsenal to get slightly more than that still. Two very tough games there, with a couple of teams who will play the usual game we've struggled with at Old Trafford.. But with Kagawa, Januzaj, Mata, and Rooney as a front four I'd very much fancy us to go and win those five games. There's also a nice break between the Bayern and Everton games, so if we go out of the UCL, we've go a fresh squad to have a real go at the top four one last time this season.
Spurs
Sunderland (H)
West Brom (A)
Fulham (H)
Stoke (A)
West Ham (A)
Aston Villa (H)
Can't leave out Spurs and their run in is pretty nice, but I expect them to bottle it.. And even if they don't, one draw is enough to see them not finish fourth IMO, just as it would be for us. They will draw at least one of those, they are fecking rubbish even at their best.
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Thoughts? Probably shouldn't even be thinking it, but if we do win all of our games I think it will be extremely close. Could nick it on goal difference as ours will surely be the highest if we win all our games compared to the other sides not. Arsenal may be made to rue all those heavy defeats to the big teams away. Could be a more interesting end to the season than we thought.
Arsenal
West Ham (H)
Hull (A)
Newcastle (H)
West Brom (H)
Norwich (A)
It's Arsenal's to lose and they're doing a good job of giving it up so far. However, it is still extremely optimistic to think Arsenal can drop 7 Points from those games.. However, at the same time, I could see them drawing any of them. Perhaps two draws while they're in a slump, and a last day defeat to struggling Norwich who have a good home record?
Everton
Sunderland (A)
Crystal Palace (H)
Man Utd (H)
Southampton (A)
Man City (H)
Hull (A)
Everton are right at it at the moment, playing very well. However, there is every possibility of it crashing and burning. Sunderland will be scrapping for it and beat them in the previous game, so not out of the question that they draw. I'd still expect them to beat a revitalised Palace, but if we go to Goodison and the other teams involved in the race for fourth have dropped points before us, and win, then it is wide open. Everton then have to face a very good Southampton away (another draw?) and a Man City side who want the title badly (easily could be a loss, possibly a draw) along with a final day at Hull that won't be easy. We probably need Everton to implode, however, as losses to United and City would be harmful, but we'd still need them to lose another game or draw two in order to move ahead.
Man Utd
Everton (A)
Norwich (H)
Sunderland (H)
Hull (H)
Southampton (A)
Got to win all five, it's as simple as that. 72 Points could well be enough, even if I'd have to fancy Arsenal to get slightly more than that still. Two very tough games there, with a couple of teams who will play the usual game we've struggled with at Old Trafford.. But with Kagawa, Januzaj, Mata, and Rooney as a front four I'd very much fancy us to go and win those five games. There's also a nice break between the Bayern and Everton games, so if we go out of the UCL, we've go a fresh squad to have a real go at the top four one last time this season.
Spurs
Sunderland (H)
West Brom (A)
Fulham (H)
Stoke (A)
West Ham (A)
Aston Villa (H)
Can't leave out Spurs and their run in is pretty nice, but I expect them to bottle it.. And even if they don't, one draw is enough to see them not finish fourth IMO, just as it would be for us. They will draw at least one of those, they are fecking rubbish even at their best.
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Thoughts? Probably shouldn't even be thinking it, but if we do win all of our games I think it will be extremely close. Could nick it on goal difference as ours will surely be the highest if we win all our games compared to the other sides not. Arsenal may be made to rue all those heavy defeats to the big teams away. Could be a more interesting end to the season than we thought.
Involves us winning all five, and the three teams above us dropping a number of points, which I can't see happening. All five of the games we have left are ones that have either tripped us up in the past, or could easily do.
Yea but that defeat would be a helping catalyst towards aiding his former team into the champions league. In my own opinion, a defeat to Everton would showcase the managerial proficency between Moyes and Martinez who both took on a new job this season. One took the champions and hypothetically drag them out of a cpl place, while the other showcased good football and hypothetically placed his team in a cpl spot. That defeat would hypothetically conclude an embarassing scenario in regards to comparing the jobs the respective manager done with their team.
I understand that it should not be an assured victory, but from a larger perspective, it would showcase their individual managerial quality with the hands they were dealt.
We'll end up with 68 points I reckon, give or take a point.
Its obviously possible if Everton and Arsenal both capitulate. I think Arsenal will get it though, 5 very easy games left for them and Ramsey is back for them, along with Ozil soon coming back.
Not going to happen, we won't win all 5 and even if we did 72 points wouldn't be enough.
I'm giving us a fighting chance. Most bookies have us at 33/1. Best price 40/1 at Ladbrokes and Betfair. Obviously the bookies aren't often wrong, but I', taking 40/1. I think that's a good price. We seem to be finding a little bit of form. We have the players to go on a run and win our last 5. I'm not saying it's likely, but I wouldn't write us off. Not just yet.
I think you could win your last five and that still wouldn't be enough. If you want in you'll have to win big ears.
And I think we could win all five and it could be enough. Arsenal are very poor.
Again, it's not likely, hence the large price against it. But stranger things have happened. This time last year we were 6/7 points clear of City and everyone on here was panicking that we'd be caught. We won the league by 11. We're seven points behind Arsenal, in 4th now.
72 points would have been good enough for top 4 in 4 of the last 5 seasons, only missing out by a point last season, and being enough to clinch 2nd and 3rd in others. 72 may well be plenty, we just have to get there first.
If we beat Everton, the door is definitely ajar. Long odds, but it's suddenly a legitimate bit of grist for speculation.
Everton have 4th in my opinion. They just have everything going for them on top of playing great stuff. There is no doubt the media, their fans and the rest of the footballing community will love the fact that Martinez taking them to the Champions Leaue the seasons Moyes left. They are finishing well above us.
Spurs as well, if they beat Sunderland they are a point ahead of you.
Yeah but they're shite and will lose half of their games anyways. I don't think there's any realistic chance, just saying in the hypothetical scenario that the 2 in front of us currently collapse. Spurs will realistically collapse anyways.
Lol, imagine we actually piped 4th. We'd have Arsenal and Everton fans ringing North Korea asking to declare war against Moyes.
I'm nervous, as we actually could do this. We are on a great winning streak but those weird football laws would state that we are bound to lose one or two, and it always comes in those games you're odds on to win e.g. Sunderland or Palace. I am confident of picking up points in all of our home games though. The Southampton game is the one that worries me most to be fair.
I'd love Everton to get fourth now. Fingers crossed we finish sixth or fifth, if we joined Arsenal in the Europa League next season I think I'd feel less shame.
Do they have anything to play for anymore though? Your away ties are all potentially tricky, but very winnable.
It's amazing to think that if we had shown competence and seen out the Southampton and Cardiff games and beaten a shite West Brom, we'd actually be favorites for 4th at this point in the season.
A lot of them will be fighting for a World Cup spot and they don't strike me at all as a team that would give up toward the end of the season due to having 'nothing to play for'. They're a cracking side and last season they probably gave us one of our toughest, if not the toughest game.
And if we'd won most of our home games, we'd be challenging for the title!
Looking at the fixture list Arsenal should still be favourites. However, they've lost all momentum and look a bit fecked. Should be a very close race.
Scouse teams are two different shades of shit. Nice touch.
There's a difference between giving up and dropping off a tad. Everton should be as fired up as anything in contrast. Certainly rather be playing them away in those circumstances rather than mid season.
You won't win all your matches, but I wouldn't be surprised if you went unbeaten.
Personally I think we'd be favourites for 4th if we just played Kagawa earlier in the season and stuck with him rather then misuse him like we have. We would've have easily had turned a few of the results into more favourable results where we couldn't open up the opposition. So frustrating that the only reason we are so far down is because Moyes treated mid table players like key players and so we've been a mid table team this season. Since we started using our better and talented players, we've had good performances and gotten better results, who would've figured that?
Better than pulling for arsenal..
Everton are grabbing fourth in my opinion and rightly so. They have the momentum and are playing with confidence and Arsenal are imploding again. Funnily enough I'm relatively happy to see Everton do well as they're not a team I've ever begrudged in any way although it will be ironic if it's our temporary fall from grace that frees up a spot for them.
Everton away will be tough however I can see us beating them. With the amount of time we have to prepare for that game and they have sunderland and crystal palace before that game, two teams who will be looking to get something and push them hard. That said, Palace will probably be safe by the time they get round to their game however they won't be an easy team to play against.
If we beat Everton and so do City I would fancy us to finish level with them and they will take 5th on goal difference.
Arsenal won't lose fourth however I can see them getting about 75 points with a lower goal difference than us.
Imagine how we would feel if we finished 3 points off fourth...
On a positive we would be on a 7 match winning run and having won 10 out of our last 12 therefore Moyes still has something to play for, his job.
It would also show how even after as disastrous a season as we could have, we were almost top four. Therefore Moyes next season or the new manager should comfortably achieve fourth and if a new manager he might even compete for the title considering we could play youngsters in Europa league or use it to experiment with how to get the most out of Kagawa, Mata, Rooney, RVP and our new quality central midfielders (surely it's time?).
If we beat Everton and so do City I would fancy us to finish level with them and they will take 5th on goal difference.
Arsenal won't lose fourth however I can see them getting about 75 points with a lower goal difference than us.
Imagine how we would feel if we finished 3 points off fourth...
On a positive we would be on a 7 match winning run and having won 10 out of our last 12 therefore Moyes still has something to play for, his job.
It would also show how even after as disastrous a season as we could have, we were almost top four. Therefore Moyes next season or the new manager should comfortably achieve fourth and if a new manager he might even compete for the title considering we could play youngsters in Europa league or use it to experiment with how to get the most out of Kagawa, Mata, Rooney, RVP and our new quality central midfielders (surely it's time?).
Shocking season. Not to mention losing to Spurs, Everton and Newcastle, teams we always beat at OT. Even Liverpool
I'm not sure how the mid week Bayern game will affect us for Everton, I know we were chasing the ball a lot but surely 10 days is enough to recover?
I think with the amount of time we have to prepare for Everton and then the fact Everton play Saturday away to a relegation threatened Sunderland team that must win and so will push them hard and then again against a Palace side that will make things unpleasant before a short rest and playing United does give us a chance to win. In the post just before this you said we will lose to Everton but considering the scenario, I think it's fair to give United a chance to win that game.
That said, we won't get fourth. I do think we could get 72 points with Mata as the number 10 however it's unlikely as we didn't look like scoring against Newcastle until the free kick and then they gave up. Still, the team could surprise us and if they beat Everton then they might be more confident in the last four.
If we do get to 72 points I expect Everton to get the same at the very least and so beat us on goal difference. I also expect Arsenal to reach 75 points although I do acknowledge if West Ham get a result at Emirates then things get interesting for them with an away trip to Hull next and low confidence levels. A loss to Wigan would do wonders.
We won't get fourth, Arsenal, Everton and Spurs are more likely to before us but at least we would finally turn up to the race albeit very late with it almost over.
We will do well to get EL (6th) from here never mind 4th. Right before the Liverpool game I felt that we had a real chance of finishing 4th if we won 9 of our last 10 games. Losing to both Liverpool and City was the final straw but ultimately our form straight after the new year left a lot to be desired. Spurs, Swansea (cup), Chelsea, Sunderland (cup), Stoke and Arsenal were all games we should have performed a lot better in. Right up until the new year we weren't actually doing that bad, only two points behind Liverpool.
Why? At that point we would either be ahead on GD or tied with the advantage of having scored more goals.
Looking at Arsenals remaining fixtures, you could see even those bottlers winning 4, even perhaps the trip to Hull who're playing for naught right now, which is their toughest of an easy lot! really think Arsenal will get their 4th place trophy again.
To be fair didn't Spurs beat us at OT last season? And Everton are a quality side. The Newcastle and WBA defeats, along with surrendering the 3 points late on against Soton and Fulham are the results that are the most disappointing for me.
When have we been tripped up by Hull, Sunderland and Norwich at home? Even in that appalling cup semi we still technically beat them at home.
I don't think we'll not win any of those 3. It's the two aways that are the hard games.
And even a 5 game win I'm sure will leave us just under top 4, quite massively frustratingly.
We can argue all summer about which game was the most likely culprit, from about 15 options
4th is obviously gone and we won't finish 5th either but our target should be pipping Spurs to 6th and getting that Europa spot. It's within our reach, there's only a point between the two teams and Spurs are prone to bottling it late on. I reckon 4 wins should do the trick for us.
What has it come to though? Come May we'll be fighting with Spurs for an Europa League spot. If someone had told me this a year ago I would have laughed into his face.
What has it come to though? Come May we'll be fighting with Spurs for an Europa League spot. If someone had told me this a year ago I would have laughed into his face.
It's true.
Which is why top 4 cannot be the aim next season. Even a slight improvement this season and we'd be in with a decent shout of 4th. That's simply too low an aim for this squad.
Everton can have as many 69 points before our game against them. They have Sunderland away this weekend and then CP midweek. It's hard to see them not getting anything from either of those games with the confidence they are playing. If they win both those games than 5th is essentially gone. 6th is our best bet right now; need Spurs to drop a couple of points in their next 5 relatively easy fixtures and win all our games.