Westminster Politics

Maticmaker

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Yes indeed.
Personally I treat the opinion polls with a big pinch of salt.
Yes I believe Labour will win. But I doubt it will be more than just a small working majority.

The longer Sunak waits, the bigger the risk is to Labour. Especially with slightly improving economic conditions.
Still everything to play for.
I suspect everybody (at least in our age group) do. Polls may give an indication of the way the wind is blowing, but its always a mistake to try to use it as a measure.

As you say Starmer has a large majority to overcome and to do the things he needs to do, will, as I've speculated elsewhere, need to have very large swings at least in the constituencies where results do tend to blow with the wind. He will then need to establish a timetable for real change that will cover at least two possibly three terms. Its a massive task and he is right to canvass support wherever he can, across the board,

There are massive problems both behind him i.e.fall out and costs (debts) from Covid and in front of him, the ever deepening worry of wars continuing in Europe and in the Middle East, neither of which show any sign of abating and if anything show signs of dragging others in. There is of course climate changes, of which many governments are now (effectively) rowing back from (or thinking of doing so) etc.

The big problem will be increases in defence spending, as the threat grows so money and resources will get sucked into this area from everywhere else. The primary duty of a government is to defend its people, therefore as war clouds gather so resources get diverted to move the economy on to a 'war footing' suspect (@Paul the Wolf ) Paul would say after Brexit, its already on that footing now, as it is believed Russia already is at this stage now.

If Starmer does not get his large majority, its even possible (if the worst should follow) that a government of national unity may be on the cards..... the mind boggles!!
 

Paul the Wolf

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I suspect everybody (at least in our age group) do. Polls may give an indication of the way the wind is blowing, but its always a mistake to try to use it as a measure.

As you say Starmer has a large majority to overcome and to do the things he needs to do, will, as I've speculated elsewhere, need to have very large swings at least in the constituencies where results do tend to blow with the wind. He will then need to establish a timetable for real change that will cover at least two possibly three terms. Its a massive task and he is right to canvass support wherever he can, across the board,

There are massive problems both behind him i.e.fall out and costs (debts) from Covid and in front of him, the ever deepening worry of wars continuing in Europe and in the Middle East, neither of which show any sign of abating and if anything show signs of dragging others in. There is of course climate changes, of which many governments are now (effectively) rowing back from (or thinking of doing so) etc.

The big problem will be increases in defence spending, as the threat grows so money and resources will get sucked into this area from everywhere else. The primary duty of a government is to defend its people, therefore as war clouds gather so resources get diverted to move the economy on to a 'war footing' suspect (@Paul the Wolf ) Paul would say after Brexit, its already on that footing now, as it is believed Russia already is at this stage now.

If Starmer does not get his large majority, its even possible (if the worst should follow) that a government of national unity may be on the cards..... the mind boggles!!
I think Labour will win comfortably but not by the margins some polls suggest. It should be totally impossible for the Tories to win with the complete ineptitude of the government and the ministers. But Starmer's been a poor opposition leader as he was when Shadow Brexit Secretary and that covers just about all his political career so far.

The Elphicke saga was a mistake which will come back to bite him at a later stage - in terms of voters he may gain some Brexiters and xenophobes but lose other votes. She will lose the plot by the Autumn (if not sooner).

Every time the government are in trouble they bring up some threats of war. Secure the borders !! by both Tories and Labour. All propaganda. Increasing spending marginally to 2.5% is not exactly a considerable amount.

As I said previously Brexit has only just begun properly this year and will gradually increase its effects over the next five years. During which time Starmer will probably have his first term. if he doesn't get it right in the first term he won't get a second term. The public will easily swing back towards the Tories.

I think the Tory government from top to bottom is appalling but I don't rate Starmer and his mates very highly either although they'd struggle to be worse than the current lot. I was expecting Labour would choose a different type of leader. I think Starmer will wilt.
 

Maticmaker

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Every time the government are in trouble they bring up some threats of war. Secure the borders !! by both Tories and Labour. All propaganda. Increasing spending marginally to 2.5% is not exactly a considerable amount.

As I said previously Brexit has only just begun properly this year and will gradually increase its effects over the next five years.
/
Right on Paul, knew I could rely on you. ;)

Increasing spending on defence (0.5%) is all propaganda eh!! Not when you are already billions in debt and public services are on their knees and more and more people are registering as 'unavailable for work'. Never mind that NATO is getting drawn inextricably into a new 'cold war' scenario in East European arena; that the US ( our eternal strategic partner) will not allow its only major ally in the Middle East Israel to fail, especially with Iran calling the shots.

According to you then Paul these things are incidental to the real problem of 'what comes after Brexit'.... really?

I suspect whatever government is in power after the GE, the Brexit 'fallout' will become a side show, especially as the EU is suffering internal machinations on immigration and border issues as well. All the Western World will have to close ranks over the next decade. If Trump wins in US presidential race, then he may well try to force a plan within NATO where the US takes the lead in the Middle East supporting Israel, (whatever it takes) whilst Europe is expected to take the lead in locking horns with Putin and pushing him back over Ukraine.

Meanwhile back to the climate change front, things will be looking decidedly doggy especially as China has already said it will continue to utilise its furnaces to provide its energy, whilst we sit alone, only half filling our kettles and bathing in only 50 cm's of water. Probably being reminded (by Government) how eating carrots help us to see better in the dark (joke of course, only for people in their 70's)

Scary times ahead Paul, if Starmer's not up to it, we shall have to find someone who is... any suggestions?
 

Paul the Wolf

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/
Right on Paul, knew I could rely on you. ;)

Increasing spending on defence (0.5%) is all propaganda eh!! Not when you are already billions in debt and public services are on their knees and more and more people are registering as 'unavailable for work'. Never mind that NATO is getting drawn inextricably into a new 'cold war' scenario in East European arena; that the US ( our eternal strategic partner) will not allow its only major ally in the Middle East Israel to fail, especially with Iran calling the shots.

According to you then Paul these things are incidental to the real problem of 'what comes after Brexit'.... really?

I suspect whatever government is in power after the GE, the Brexit 'fallout' will become a side show, especially as the EU is suffering internal machinations on immigration and border issues as well. All the Western World will have to close ranks over the next decade. If Trump wins in US presidential race, then he may well try to force a plan within NATO where the US takes the lead in the Middle East supporting Israel, (whatever it takes) whilst Europe is expected to take the lead in locking horns with Putin and pushing him back over Ukraine.

Meanwhile back to the climate change front, things will be looking decidedly doggy especially as China has already said it will continue to utilise its furnaces to provide its energy, whilst we sit alone, only half filling our kettles and bathing in only 50 cm's of water. Probably being reminded (by Government) how eating carrots help us to see better in the dark (joke of course, only for people in their 70's)

Scary times ahead Paul, if Starmer's not up to it, we shall have to find someone who is... any suggestions?
An extra 0.5% to 2.5% is nothing and is certainly not ' a war footing' and it's planned in the future not now and only if the finances allow it. They're even going to build landing craft - where are they planning on landing?

Throughout my life time, we've had the Cold War, The Vietnam war, Falklands, Bosnia, Middle East, Iraq, Afghanistan and countless others. And the British Armed Services have been decimated due to cuts. They even don't dare say that they'll cut arms sales to Israel because the reality is they hardly sell any, "not good for propaganda, you see, old boy". Sounds as if you've bought into Sunak's the next five years will be the most dangerous in UK history, really. Its only major ally - really.

How does Brexit become a sideshow? As I say, everyone thinks it's all over, but it's only just beginning. Reality will (hopefully) start to hit soon and certainly by 2028/9 just before the next election. If you stick your fingers in your ears, go la la la and get a veterinary agreement it will all go away.

Starmer's definitely not up to it. Surely there must be one candidate. Who? I haven't the slightest idea.
 
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Red in STL

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I think Labour will win comfortably but not by the margins some polls suggest. It should be totally impossible for the Tories to win with the complete ineptitude of the government and the ministers. But Starmer's been a poor opposition leader as he was when Shadow Brexit Secretary and that covers just about all his political career so far.

The Elphicke saga was a mistake which will come back to bite him at a later stage - in terms of voters he may gain some Brexiters and xenophobes but lose other votes. She will lose the plot by the Autumn (if not sooner).

Every time the government are in trouble they bring up some threats of war. Secure the borders !! by both Tories and Labour. All propaganda. Increasing spending marginally to 2.5% is not exactly a considerable amount.

As I said previously Brexit has only just begun properly this year and will gradually increase its effects over the next five years. During which time Starmer will probably have his first term. if he doesn't get it right in the first term he won't get a second term. The public will easily swing back towards the Tories.

I think the Tory government from top to bottom is appalling but I don't rate Starmer and his mates very highly either although they'd struggle to be worse than the current lot. I was expecting Labour would choose a different type of leader. I think Starmer will wilt.
Yet they managed it in 2019 with Boris Johnson, a known man of complete ineptitude at the helm
 

Paul the Wolf

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Yet they managed it in 2019 with Boris Johnson, a known man of complete ineptitude at the helm
But they've doubled or tripled in ineptitude since 2019 because Johnson surrounded himself with complete dumbos and cheerleaders so he wouldn't be under threat. Those people are still there.

Unless Labour are radical in their first term and really change things and not tinker with Tory policies, the Tories will be back in 2029 - either even worse than they are now or a complete change of tack. If Starmer is scared of Brexiters or Tory voters now, he'll be scared in 2029 if he's still there.

If Labour can't beat the Tories now after all that's happened, they never will.
 

Jericholyte2

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@Sweet Square except the task force is aimed at stopping the people traffickers. This is a clear improvement on current policy which is aimed at punishing those who've been trafficked.

Admittedly I'd have preferred it to be 'Re-Open Safe & Legal Routes', but this is objectively better than what the Tories are offering.
 

Paul the Wolf

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@Sweet Square except the task force is aimed at stopping the people traffickers. This is a clear improvement on current policy which is aimed at punishing those who've been trafficked.

Admittedly I'd have preferred it to be 'Re-Open Safe & Legal Routes', but this is objectively better than what the Tories are offering.
What exactly is this taskforce supposed to be doing? Rampaging around Europe or the rest of the world or around the UK. Are they going to be lined up on the coast repelling any boats that try to come ashore?
Legal routes are the only way to reduce the need for migrants to use the gangs. These gangs must be trembling - hiding under the bedclothes.
 

TheGame

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What exactly is this taskforce supposed to be doing? Rampaging around Europe or the rest of the world or around the UK. Are they going to be lined up on the coast repelling any boats that try to come ashore?
Legal routes are the only way to reduce the need for migrants to use the gangs. These gangs must be trembling - hiding under the bedclothes.
Legal routes alone aren't going to stop gangs. What is going to happen if your application is rejected for example, you aren't going to just give up, people will go back to illegal gangs again. The best thing would be to have both solutions.
 

Paul the Wolf

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Legal routes alone aren't going to stop gangs. What is going to happen if your application is rejected for example, you aren't going to just give up, people will go back to illegal gangs again. The best thing would be to have both solutions.
But it will reduce it considerably. And they won't need to make arduous journeys to have to get to the UK to make their asylum claim if they can make their claim at an Embassy or dedicated place outside the UK like in Calais for example. Therefore would not need to use the criminal gangs. Of course it won't eliminate them completely like any other criminal activity.

Don't forget both Tories and Labour are really really really concerned about the safety of those poor asylum seekers across a dangerous sealane.
 

Sweet Square

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@Sweet Square except the task force is aimed at stopping the people traffickers. This is a clear improvement on current policy which is aimed at punishing those who've been trafficked.
This time the task force are going to go after the bad guys isn’t a serious answer yet alone one which is about compassion

Although does speak to the Labour leadership overall ideology which is agreeing with Tory policy but thinking the issue is with the management and administration of policy.

If Starmer ran as a David Cameron style politician during the leadership race and members voted for it then while stupid would at least be somewhat democratically consistent. But he didn’t and I have no idea why so many left wing the leadership.
 

TheGame

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But it will reduce it considerably. And they won't need to make arduous journeys to have to get to the UK to make their asylum claim if they can make their claim at an Embassy or dedicated place outside the UK like in Calais for example. Therefore would not need to use the criminal gangs. Of course it won't eliminate them completely like any other criminal activity.

Don't forget both Tories and Labour are really really really concerned about the safety of those poor asylum seekers across a dangerous sealane.
Not sure if you read my response but I agree legal routes are needed alongside better border security to tackle the gangs.
 

nickm

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The Elphicke saga was a mistake which will come back to bite him at a later stage - in terms of voters he may gain some Brexiters and xenophobes but lose other votes. She will lose the plot by the Autumn (if not sooner).
Most people just see a Tory defecting and she'll only be around for 6 or so months. I can see why he did it, not a lot of downside risk really. In fact, the surprise is such a cautious politician took the risk.

As I said previously Brexit has only just begun properly this year and will gradually increase its effects over the next five years. During which time Starmer will probably have his first term. if he doesn't get it right in the first term he won't get a second term. The public will easily swing back towards the Tories.
The public won't easily swing back to the Tories, because they are going to get shattered, not just beaten. The lessons they need to learn to rebuild as a centrist party are going to take 2-3 crushing electoral defeats to sink in, as it did for Labour. They need to change everything, as their base withers and dies. It is going to be far harder for them to come back, because of the ground they need to travel to get back to reality.

And I think you underprice the power that comes with Labour being able to set the terms of the political debate. That is something they cannot do at the moment. But they will in a few months.
 

CassiusClaymore

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The Tories have gone so far right and are so corrupted that they've completely vacated the ground they stood on to win the previous elections. Labour have now just slid right in there to fill the gap. The gap now is where the Labour party used to be which is why so many are now feeling politically homeless.
 

Paul the Wolf

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Most people just see a Tory defecting and she'll only be around for 6 or so months. I can see why he did it, not a lot of downside risk really. In fact, the surprise is such a cautious politician took the risk.



The public won't easily swing back to the Tories, because they are going to get shattered. The lessons they need to learn to rebuild as a centrist party are going to take 2-3 crushing electoral defeats to sink in, as it did for Labour. It is going to be far harder for them to come back, because of the ground they need to travel to get back to reality.

And I think you underprice the power that comes with Labour being able to set the terms of the political debate. That is something they cannot do at the moment. But they will in a few months.
She's left the Tories because she wanted to be a housing minister and didn't get a ministerial post. She thinks that Starmer will be more efficient at stopping the boats. She will also have meltdown in the summer with the queues at Dover and when the EU Entry/Exit system comes into operation, probably in the Autumn and Dover becomes a carpark.

I really don't see her gracefully fading into the background. Or telling the truth. Have a sneaky feeling she'll want to be MP either in Dover or somewhere else and a ministerial post on top.

The Tories crushed Labour in 2019 but will be crushed in 2024. Same five year difference. If nothing dramatically improves...
 

TheGame

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I did but what exactly is this border security to tackle the gangs?
People smuggling will still exist, this will be people who cannot get in through the legal route or those who don't want to go through legal routes at all so tacking people smuggling is a big deal to stop people putting their lives in danger by crossing the channel. Obviously we will need to see the detail and how it works in practice but it certainly sounds better than the Rwanda scheme.
 

TheGame

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The Tories have gone so far right and are so corrupted that they've completely vacated the ground they stood on to win the previous elections. Labour have now just slid right in there to fill the gap. The gap now is where the Labour party used to be which is why so many are now feeling politically homeless.
Will be interesting to see who they elect next as leader, if it turns out to be Braverman, things will get even worse for them.