Westminster Politics

Buster15

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Partly yes, fuelled by the media and an unrepresentative first past the post system.
The media is the media and has always been highly pro Tory.
And I am afraid that the current electoral system is not going to change any time soon.
So, we are left with the electorate. That is the only variable.
 

Fluctuation0161

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The media is the media and has always been highly pro Tory.
And I am afraid that the current electoral system is not going to change any time soon.
So, we are left with the electorate. That is the only variable.
So your point is, if you disregard 2 far more influential variables, then the electorate is the only variable.
 

Buster15

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So your point is, if you disregard 2 far more influential variables, then the electorate is the only variable.
Of the three things you mentioned, the right wing press and the FPTP electoral system have been constant for decades.
But the voting public can be cyclic in their voting intentions.
But I did not say that I disregard the main two, because they are extremely powerful.
 

Smores

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Lovely, stuff like that is excellent to dismantle the reputation of a minister.

The media are definitely turning on him slowly and i think it's largely spearheaded by his own party. We'll have a new PM and an election late next year i think.
 

Adisa

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Lovely, stuff like that is excellent to dismantle the reputation of a minister.

The media are definitely turning on him slowly and i think it's largely spearheaded by his own party. We'll have a new PM and an election late next year i think.
Election...who puts an 80 seat majority at risk?
 

sun_tzu

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Lovely, stuff like that is excellent to dismantle the reputation of a minister.

The media are definitely turning on him slowly and i think it's largely spearheaded by his own party. We'll have a new PM and an election late next year i think.
Winter elections are unusual

I could certainly see a challenge in the late spring / early summer with a new leader being elected in time for conference ... then a budget designed to win votes in April with an election in May 2023 ... which ties in nicely with the SNP pledge to hold indy ref 2 before the end of 2023 so ideal timing to make a vote for labour a vote for breaking up the UK.

suspect we will see sunak jostling for position to be next in line (and gove lining up behind him ready to knife him in the back)
 

Adisa

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New leader bounce. Leaders tend to get less popular as people get to know them more and as they develop a track record to criticise.
They have an 80 seat majority. These cnuts could pass any law they want. The gains to be had are marginal. That's too much of a risk.
 

711

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They have an 80 seat majority. These cnuts could pass any law they want. The gains to be had are marginal. That's too much of a risk.
It would be about the chances of winning the next election. Polls are levelish now, but given the tax increases and inflation coming, with possibly more, a 2024 election could be very iffy for the Tories, whatever majority they have now. New leaders are often popular to begin with (Starmer excepted!) so a 2022 election could mean being in power until 2027 instead of 2024. It would be a judgement call depending on the situation at the time, but a 2022 election is quite conceivable.

The fixed-term parliament act is bollocks by the way, ignore it.
 

DavidDeSchmikes

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It would be about the chances of winning the next election. Polls are levelish now, but given the tax increases and inflation coming, with possibly more, a 2024 election could be very iffy for the Tories, whatever majority they have now. New leaders are often popular to begin with (Starmer excepted!) so a 2022 election could mean being in power until 2027 instead of 2024. It would be a judgement call depending on the situation at the time, but a 2022 election is quite conceivable.

The fixed-term parliament act is bollocks by the way, ignore it.
don't forgot the power of the newspapers, the ones who endorsed Johnson may get tired of his antics and for making them look silly. Johnson has served their purpose, got Brexit 'done', seen off Corbyn and got Labour to go in a more 'New Labour' direction
 

711

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don't forgot the power of the newspapers, the ones who endorsed Johnson may get tired of his antics and for making them look silly. Johnson has served their purpose, got Brexit 'done', seen off Corbyn and got Labour to go in a more 'New Labour' direction
Johnson started off with no shortage of enemies in the Tory party itself, they'll be glad to get rid when they can.

As for Sunak I admit I don't know how popular he is amongst MPs actually. He would need to get voted first or second amongst MPs to stand for party leader, and I have no idea what his chances would be of that. The Tory press seem to like him, but that might not count for anything in the MP ballots.
 

MoskvaRed

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@FireballXL5 mentioned Churchill. I think he at least disguised it a bit better when speaking in public. Today’s shambles is more like Boris Yeltsin. Johnson obviously has a problem. I thought he was pissed (or at least horrendously hungover) when I saw him interviewed in Glasgow the other week by Amanpour on CNN.
 

DavidDeSchmikes

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Johnson started off with no shortage of enemies in the Tory party itself, they'll be glad to get rid when they can.

As for Sunak I admit I don't know how popular he is amongst MPs actually. He would need to get voted first or second amongst MPs to stand for party leader, and I have no idea what his chances would be of that. The Tory press seem to like him, but that might not count for anything in the MP ballots.
Sooner the better without damaging the Tory brand. Johnson has gone from untouchable to untenable in a handful of weeks. Champ to chump
 

711

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Current Tory leader odds, bet365:

Rishi Sunak 12/5
Liz Truss 9/2
Michael Gove 6/1
Jeremy Hunt 10/1

Hunt seems to have a strange teflon quality which shouldn't be underestimated, no matter what he cocks up nothing sticks.
 

DavidDeSchmikes

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Current Tory leader odds, bet365:

Rishi Sunak 12/5
Liz Truss 9/2
Michael Gove 6/1
Jeremy Hunt 10/1

Hunt seems to have a strange teflon quality which shouldn't be underestimated, no matter what he cocks up nothing sticks.
Hunt as one advantage over the other three, he hasn't served in Boris Johnson's cabinet
 

jeff_goldblum

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The last few weeks has been an incredible crash course on the role of the media in our political system. Johnson has been demonstrably unfit to be Prime Minister since Day One and a inept and embarrassing liability for a lot longer than that. For years none of his feck-ups, including ones that by rights should have ended the Tories as a political force, got any traction in the media. It's only now, when it benefits the Tories to pin their collective failings on him before they get rid, that he's actually subjected to anything approaching the level of scrutiny a Prime Minister should experience.