Westminster Politics

sun_tzu

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He would need just under 60 MPs to vote for him, as there are 122 Government Ministers who can be whipped to vote in his favour.
160 to 170 on the payroll

The current payroll vote is between 160 and 170 MPs, consisting of:

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/payroll-vote

Find it hard to see too many of them voting against him
 

sun_tzu

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Sorry yes you are right. They would be sacked if they voted against.

It is almost as if he packed the benches with trade envoys for this exact situation!
Could see him appointing a few more just to be sure... I mean he's just changed the ministerial code ffs so why not add another dozen trade envoys and give them free government holidays sorry important trade missions to say dubai, Maldives, Australia etc
 

Fluctuation0161

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I'm not so sure...

He would need just over 180 votes to win

And if he wins by even one vote I don't think he will step down

If there was a really popular clear alternative I think he might struggle but he has something like 170 mps drawing some sort of government payroll... so I just don't think (unless something new and dramatic happens) that there will be the 120+ mps who did not send a letter to the 1922 but will vote against him

If he survives then he is safe for another year and by summer 2023 the conservatives might feel its too late to change anyway

If lab lib green (and snp?) Can form a progressive alliance committed to electoral reform and a pr system then stand down candidates against Johnson it could be a landslide in 2024 and potentially the last ever Conservative only government if pr is passed.

No doubt the opportunity will be missed so people can say sir Keith and sing oooooh Jeremy corbyn instead
Illogical comment considering Starmer sits politically much further away from an alliance than most who are positioned further left than him in the Labour party.

Your standard MO. No doubt you will next find a way to blame Corbyn or "Jezbollah" for Starmers future political decisions too.
 

RedChip

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If Johnson wins a VONC there cannot be another one for 12 months under the current rules, which would be handy.
It seems though they didn't follow this rule when they got rid of May. So they could very well have another VONC if it suits them.

I think they have enough letters now for one this week.
 

DOTA

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It seems though they didn't follow this rule when they got rid of May. So they could very well have another VONC if it suits them.

I think they have enough letters now for one this week.
They did. May resigned.
 

sun_tzu

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Illogical comment considering Starmer sits politically much further away from an alliance than most who are positioned further left than him in the Labour party.

Your standard MO. No doubt you will next find a way to blame Corbyn or "Jezbollah" for Starmers future political decisions too.
More from the fact that I know people in the progressive alliance at senior levels who basically were told to do one when corbyn was in power but are having more meaningful convos now...

Anyway you stick to saying sir Keith and waiting for your youthquake and let the adults try and fix stuff
 

Pexbo

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Wonder if we’re shaping up towards a much softer Brexiteer leading the country. With Hannan, Schaps and various others seemingly distancing themselves from this form of self harm Brexit in recent days the stage could be set for a more pragmatic approach lumping the blame for this shit show on Boris.
 

Klopper76

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Wonder if we’re shaping up towards a much softer Brexiteer leading the country. With Hannan, Schaps and various others seemingly distancing themselves from this form of self harm Brexit in recent days the stage could be set for a more pragmatic approach lumping the blame for this shit show on Boris.
Nah it’ll be PM Nadine Dorries and all out war on Channel 4.
 

Adisa

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Part of me wants him to lead them at the next election. Unfortunately, they aren't the most successful political party in history for nothing. They will be ruthless as usual.
 

Vernon Philander

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If he survives the vote, he will use the 1 year immunity to the maximum. It will not be like previous PMs like May where they are mortally wounded by the fact that there is a vote in the first place. This is no ordinary PM or person.

I hope he's still in charge by the next election.
 

Pexbo

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VONC is happening tonight between 6 and 8pm. Confirmed on BBC.
 

pacifictheme

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If he survives the vote, he will use the 1 year immunity to the maximum. It will not be like previous PMs like May where they are mortally wounded by the fact that there is a vote in the first place. This is no ordinary PM or person.

I hope he's still in charge by the next election.
I do as well, think its thr best chance of getting the tories out. If he goes I think all his shit with covid and brexit goes with him and its business as usual.
 

villain

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It's hilarious how these same MPs have been saying that Partygate (and all his other lies) hasn't been a big deal and its time to "get on with the job" and get behind Boris.
But a few boos & jeers over the weekend from the public, and suddenly it's time to oust him. :lol:

Like I've been saying, the only way to get these politicians to be serious is to flog them in the streets, protest, march and let them know that their actions have serious consequences.
The sooner the British public grow some balls and stop acting so meek and timid in the face of corruption - the sooner real change will happen.
 

sun_tzu

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VONC is happening tonight between 6 and 8pm. Confirmed on BBC.
Probably suits him that there isn't much of a lead in time for people to rally against him whilst he has 170 ish people on government payroll who will have to resign if the vote against

Also gets the vote out of the way and then a years breathing room (assuming he wins)... before the (probably bad) by-elections soon
 

Balljy

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Probably suits him that there isn't much of a lead in time for people to rally against him whilst he has 170 ish people on government payroll who will have to resign if the vote against

Also gets the vote out of the way and then a years breathing room (assuming he wins)... before the (probably bad) by-elections soon
Is that true in a secret ballot as nobody will know who voted against anyway?
 

P-Ro

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Might put a grand on him winning this vote if the odds are decent. If it's evens I'm going in hard.
 

villain

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I actually think he'll scrape a win, purely because a scorned Boris (who likely has secrets on the likes of Sunak, Patel etc) will be a nightmare for the Tories.
 

sun_tzu

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What did theresa may get... about 64% for and 36% against?

15% or more have sent letters
Almost 50% on the government payroll

I'd guess boris can expect a similar outcome... something around 2/3rd support?
 

Djemba-Djemba

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I wonder how much damage the booing over the weekend has done for Tory MP's.

A tory PM getting booed by large crowds of Royalists, doesn't get much worse than that. I'd imagine the vast majority of people willing to queue for Royal events are tories themselves or at least willing to vote conservative and even they're sick of him.
 

Smores

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He'll survive of that I'm sure. Tories are always quick to hand out tax payers money as bribes.

What's worse is that he'll take winning this as a redemption arc and we'll have to suffer boasting by the likes of Dorris. I'm humbled but we now we'll get on with it blah blah blah.

The only hope is he stands down.
 

Pexbo

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Probably suits him that there isn't much of a lead in time for people to rally against him whilst he has 170 ish people on government payroll who will have to resign if the vote against

Also gets the vote out of the way and then a years breathing room (assuming he wins)... before the (probably bad) by-elections soon
He’s going to win it. The fact we haven’t seen the usual suspects positioning themselves for the leadership race tells you everything. They know there isn’t the support for it.