So you suggest full lockdown for 14 months?
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik @Rood and Imran @Annihilate Now! start with the good news by celebrating Manchester United Women's emphatic FA Cup win over Spurs at Wembley and the future of manager Marc Skinner.
Then it's the bad news and the ever worsening form of our Men with losses to Arsenal and Palace.
Finally the main debate - ETH Out now or keep him until the end of the season - if not longer. Are you Team Nik or Team Imran?
Society would fall apart.
Yup, and it’s complete fantasy land to suggest it could be policed in the UK, let alone a country the size of Sweden. As I posted above, we’re not talking about one Chinese city here and the World’s biggest military to enforce it.
People need to realize that lockdowns in Europe are a temporary measure only, in order to get more prepared and ease the strain on the health services.
The hope will be after the lockdown that better testing is in place and more possibilities that people understand what social distancing means and how important it will be for the next year. All countries in Europe will want a “stable” situation of patients, and if any country starts to spiral again, escalation measures will once again be put in place.
Schools/Uni's/Bars/Restaurants are all still operating right?
I said it was relaxed when compared with other countries. You're talking about so far so good when we're working off a two week delay before we see the effects of what we do today.
Full lockdown can be relaxed after a couple of weeks. However, not taking action quick enough can result in Italy/Spain levels. It's not like we've nothing to base this on.
Sure you might be ok but to me it's a big gamble.
The total number of deaths was 20 a few days ago and now it's 62. That suggests to me things aren't as stable as the number if detected infections suggests.
Unless there's some factor I'm not aware of.
Lockdown combined with social distancing, when you have to go out, will hugely help to prevent our health services becoming overwhelmed. We need lockdown and at least 80% compliance with social distancing.
High schools and Uni’s - nope, closed
Bars on table service only. And spaced apart seating.
Norway have gone full strict and look at their death rate. The death rate is simply a reflection of the patients and Sweden’s in patients are currently stable for a week after it had looked like spiraling out of control.
The likelihood of Sweden suddenly spiking after a week of stable is extremely low, not until because the stats and curve don’t back it up but because our society is nothing like Italy or Spain. So far we know that the majority of spread has been within the home right @Withnail ? And you know our big cities, the breeding grounds if you like, are famous for people leaving parental homes extremely early and barely ever flat sharing?
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Like if the entire population were to be infected?
How would you police that in Sweden for 12 months?
The experts here are fairly confident that we can remain stable by having social distancing in place and the financial incentives to stay off work with the even the tiniest sign of a symptom, that then our health services will not get overwhelmed. Especially so if we have the time to build the field hospitals were trying to build, recruit the way were trying to recruit, and bring in supplies the way we’re trying to bring in supplies.
If it becomes the case that it looks like they might get overwhelmed then yes of course stricter measures will be put in place.
My question to you is what is the point of lockdown when a country is in a stable situation?
Because make no mistake care all Europe is searching for now is stable situations, not to get rid of this virus.
British Steel is Scunthorpe works and the old long products division. All steel makers are being asked to continue production at the moment by the govt as steel shortages could stop transportation etc.
British Steel has just been taken out of liquidation by the Chinese and as a blast furnace it can't be just turned off and left. People are going to have to go in no matter what.
Not sure what the Norway reference means? We have like half your population but like 1/5 of your death rate thus far. We’re at 14, you guys are in the 60s, and were merely at 20 no less than five days ago.
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100th case graph is more accurate. UK is not tracking Italy right now like the other graph people like to post, Spain is outpacing Italy and US with it's size of population and current spread, similar to other western countries is leading the way.
What could help US in lockdown is the large spaces between states and wide open areas that people live in excluding NY.
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Simply saying that our curves aren’t vastly different.
Norway has 3000 active cases, Sweden 2500. So as for deaths, there’s little to read into it at this point. But the curves are extremely similar.
That will come in time I think, either as a vaccine, and so infected with inactive virus, or the lockdown and social distancing will just stop being followed.
Is it just me or does “almost vertical” sound really daft? For it to become vertical, time would have to stop. If it actually got anywhere near “almost vertical” the entire population of the United States would be infected in a matter of hours.
@17 Van der Gouw, @Organic Potatoes
Thanks for the replies.
Trump is going to oversee the death of the most Americans on home soil ever, it seems.
Thanks for the replies.
Trump is going to oversee the death of the most Americans on home soil ever, it seems.
You guys have tested faaaaaar fewer people. Doesn’t the discrepancy in deaths make you wonder slightly?
A country with half your population has carried out 61,252 tests (as of the 23rd), you guys are at 24,500 (as of the 25th). You guys might have a bigger problem than you know. Same goes for us, but that’s why we slam on the breaks, so we can figure out what we’re dealing with, before we relax measures, rather than the inverse.
That's a frightening prospect. I think the best case scenario is that we go full lockdown to get this thing under control like the Asian countries, then relax a bit and see what happens. If it comes back then shut it down again. It will be annoying, but that's far better than an out of control outbreak. All eyes will be on Wuhan in the next few weeks as they slowly open back up the place where it all started to see what happens next.
@Revan, I watched all of that "A Closer Look". Very depressing when it's put that way.
The same way everywhere else is. Police backed by huge fines and even prison sentences.
Just maybe in such a small rich country but my inner skeptic is calling bullshit.
Because the time to act is while stability exists. By the time you suspect stability is in danger it is usually far too late.
And there is nothing like a health service being overwhelmed to cause instability.
Yeah, it's an exaggeration, clearly it's nowhere near vertical.
Time will tell I guess but I just don’t see Scandinavia having the problems of Spain & Italy, our society and wilderness is just on a completely different scale altogether. We have more lakes than people
Slamming on the brakes might be a great idea, But remember this virus came from one market in China, when you take the brakes off again what happens? You basically just kick the can down the road.
Unless of course you think you can keep those brakes on for a year until a vaccine is found.
Why. The rules and laws don't apply to them. They only apply to people like you and I.
So what happens after say eight weeks of lockdown @Wibble? Is the virus gone? The answer is no, and remember how fast this spread from one market in China to the entire globe.
Stable is what everyone needs right now. you act when the curve starts to take a drastic upwards turn otherwise all you are doing is kicking the can down the road for when you let people out again and this virus goes mental.
I’m sure the Swedish experts expect that cases in Norway may start to slow more than Sweden, but they are also expecting that once Norway starts to relax again the spike will come back.
Different generations.
Previously, men were supposed to be the bread winner of the family and were not supposed to show their feelings and certainly not cry.
Luckily times have changed and there is much more equality.
The population needs to be infected in a controlled manner while ensuring the health system's ability to act and protecting the higher-risk groups. That's what every virologist seems to be suggesting. Otherwise this whole situation cannot be managed.
The alternative would be locking everything down for months until a vaccine is available which is no alternative at all. I think @Regulus Arcturus Black explained everything perfectly.
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There’s plenty of middle ground before you reach Spain or Italy. And trust me, I know that there's a world of difference considering the desolation, I'm an area that's a logistical nightmare on the west coast of Norway.Time will tell I guess but I just don’t see Scandinavia having the problems of Spain & Italy, our society and wilderness is just on a completely different scale altogether. We have more lakes than people
Slamming on the brakes might be a great idea, But remember this virus came from one market in China, when you take the brakes off again what happens? You basically just kick the can down the road.
Unless of course you think you can keep those brakes on for a year until a vaccine is found.
The problem is that the first cases started popping up in January, and who the feck knows how many asymptomatic people, or people who confused this with their biannual bout of the flu, have been running around and infecting people? This wasn't really taken seriously in Scandinavia until March, that's plenty of time for it to have spread relatively unchecked.
Of course it will start spreading again, but the thing is that we don't have a handle on it, we have NO idea how widely spread it is. And with the addition of incubation time before you start seeing severe symptoms, the health systems currently don't know what they're in for, which is what the lock-downs are supposed to help with.
I hope you're right and that Norway is overreacting, but I expect you guys are in for a bit of a rude awakening with (what may well be) half-measures at this stage.
Edit: for the record, I'm not looking to win an argument here... call it neighbourly concern. Stay safe, RAB
But mate the question is once you ease the lockdown again how do you know that you have a handle on it then? You don’t! It came from one market, it only needs a couple of people in Norway to take down the entire system again.
It won’t be gone but at least the number of active infections will have been lowered enough that it’ll take another month till the next big lockdown would be necessary.
I think the only 3 options right now are:
- Continuous switching between opening everything with people keeping social distancing up and going back into full lockdowns for a while.
- some company magically invents something that stops the virus or finds existing medication that stops it from causing pneumonia.
- letting it infect everyone (that’s not really an option though)
I don’t see any other solutions than one of the first two basically.
It's what a handful have suggested, but unless there is a sudden recent trend of medical professionals suddenly u-turning towards that, then I must have missed it. If the general population cannot even be trusted to follow something as simple as social distancing, how on earth can they be infected in a controlled manner? They cannot even be trusted not to visit their mums and grandparents during this time!
We're currently figuring out the fall-out from when it went around unchecked, before ANY measures were taken. After the lock-down when you ease restrictions, you still have in place measures that we didn't have a few weeks ago, which will help make sure it doesn't spread too fast that it'll be too late once the system experiences strain again. You see the difference, I hope?
I can only speak from a German perspective but here it seems to be mainly the politicians that push for stricter measures whereas medical experts in the media are much more cautious and have warned against long-term lockdowns as they are not justified. I think this temporal lockdown is a good move for the simple reason that it buys us time. But it seems clear to me that this cannot be the strategy going forward. Social and economic consequences would be catastrophic but most importantly, it does not solve the problem.
And how would you achieve this in modern Western society without putting the high-risk groups at risk?
Seems like it! He’s not usually like that though which is why I thought it would be reliable info! Sorry all.
The absolute number isn't what governments are focusing on. Testing criteria may change but you can control that and understand it. Deaths you cannot, it's random because nobody yet understands how exactly the virus kills people.
If you know your testing criteria and have 10 cases today, 20 tomorrow and 30 the day after, you can see a trend. If the day after that you have 35 cases or 45 cases, you can see a change in the trend and react accordingly. That's what everybody is looking to see. They don't care if the absolute number of cases is 40 or 400, they accept that number is inaccurate.
Look at the way the UK report, the focus is on cases. Deaths are listed second and are not always recorded over a consistent time period. In Italy too deaths are the third thing they focus on after active cases and total cases.
That's the difficult bit for the governments to figure out while we are in lockdown. We have to come up with a strategy that allows young, healthy people to work and develop herd immunity while at the same time flatten the curve and slow down the infection rate (or rather the rate of cases that require hospitalisation) enough to make sure the healthy system is able to act at all times. This is the most important thing obviously. I just hope there is some truth in that Oxford paper and a large part of the population has already been infected and herd immunity is already happening.
While likely being voted in again.
Went to bed last night at 20 800 something deaths worldwide. Its now 21 300.
Madness
Madness
1- Keep everyone home until the health system has recovered
2- Slowly rollback a few measures, allowing more people to work - start with the young and healthy, speciallfy ones who've already been infected. You do this very slowly, because cases will rise again and you need your health system to cope. Meaning for each rolled-back-measure you'll need to wait a few weeks to gauge if it's safe to progress
3- And on and on
If in the middle of this process you get a vaccine or a method of detecting who is already immune, you see a way out.
I've been trying to argue the same point with no luck. People in here want lockdowns!
Now people wash their hands, next virus will hopefully get them to wash their bodies and brush their teeth