Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

[altodevil]

Far from certain
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36619907

Sure, that refers to inheriting. There is no road block to them re-entering however.

 

[SqueakyWeasel]

must read thread

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Very well put together!

 

[Ramshock]

Don't forget Brexiters knew what they were voting for and this was it.

Of course they did

 

[sullydnl]

The EU wants a backstop to provide Ireland & NI with certainty that there will be no hard border. Yet May says the UK would have to be able to unilaterally extricate itself from the backstop agreement. Surely that defeats the whole purpose of the backstop? It's there to protect IRL&NI from the UK's actions, if the UK can abandon it then it offers nothing.

I'm also fairly certain the UK already agreed to no time limit on the backstop, so I'm not sure where May's determination to have a time limit has sprung from either.

 

[JPRouve]

The EU wants a backstop to provide Ireland & NI with certainty that there will be no hard border. Yet May says the UK would have to be able to unilaterally extricate itself from the backstop agreement. Surely that defeats the whole purpose of the backstop? It's there to protect IRL&NI from the UK's actions, if the UK can abandon it then it offers nothing.

That's the issue from the beginning. The EU proposed that NI stays in the CU-SM after Brexit, the UK refused and offered a backstop, the EU responded that it wasn't a definitive solution and that it didn't provide any long term solution for Ireland. We are stuck on that since around March and it was made official in late June.

 

[Kentonio]

Corbyn talking about how Labour can deliver a good Brexit deal. Just to confirm that he gives absolutely zero shits about the desires of his own membership.

 

[sun_tzu]

Sure, that refers to inheriting. There is no road block to them re-entering however.

Indeed... How smooth or long that process would be (esp ref Spain and Catalan independence) who knows

 

[Adisa]

The EU wants a backstop to provide Ireland & NI with certainty that there will be no hard border. Yet May says the UK would have to be able to unilaterally extricate itself from the backstop agreement. Surely that defeats the whole purpose of the backstop? It's there to protect IRL&NI from the UK's actions, if the UK can abandon it then it offers nothing.

I'm also fairly certain the UK already agreed to no time limit on the backstop, so I'm not sure where May's determination to have a time limit has sprung from either.

To make it more unbelievable, we were the ones who proposed a backstop. Davies and Boris were fully aware and added their signatures to it.
This is all about brexiteers promising the impossible and creating a scenario where they can blame someone else when the impossible doesn't happen.

 

[sullydnl]

To make it more unbelievable, we were the ones who proposed a backstop. Davies and Boris were fully aware and added their signatures to it.

Sometimes I wonder if we're stuck in an elaborate Parent Trap situation where May's long lost twin keeps accidentally negotiating with the EU, forcing the real May to cover for her by randomly changing position.

 

[GloryHunter07]

Corbyn talking about how Labour can deliver a good Brexit deal. Just to confirm that he gives absolutely zero shits about the desires of his own membership.

The will of the people - when convenient

 

[Eire Red United]

And while I am in the mood - Why have SF not taken their Westminster votes at probably the most crucial time since the formation of teh state.

*won't sit at Westminster
*Won't form government in Stormont
*Opted not to take part in Government talks regards Republic of Ireland.

Anyone who votes for these charlatans need their heads examined. Worst then the DUP for lining their own pockets, doing nothing for their constituents while being populist at every opportunity

Ah come on, it’s a core principle of Sinn Fein that they won’t take their seats in a foreign parliament and why would they betray their voters to do so? Won’t form a government in Stormont? Even though a deal was agreed up until Arlenes OO bosses pulled the plug? Don’t get me wrong, SF are far from saints but don’t dare compare them to the DUP.

 

[devilish]

I think the UK has taken the EU for a ride by signing for a backstop they were never going to accept in the first place. Thus it managed to kickstart trade negotiations

 

[bazalini]

Ah come on, it’s a core principle of Sinn Fein that they won’t take their seats in a foreign parliament and why would they betray their voters to do so? Won’t form a government in Stormont? Even though a deal was agreed up until Arlenes OO bosses pulled the plug? Don’t get me wrong, SF are far from saints but don’t dare compare them to the DUP.

They take them in the EU - which is foreign. Their NI seat is fully used.

why wouldn't SF take up seats in Westminster in what is the single biggest issue facing Ireland since the formation.

All because they " hate the English". And I will compare them to the DUP as they are nothing but a crowd of shysters who have done nothing for their people. Look at West Belfast. An economic wasteland. Best in the West my arse

 

[Paul the Wolf]

I think the UK has taken the EU for a ride by signing for a backstop they were never going to accept in the first place. Thus it managed to kickstart trade negotiations

I think it's clear from the beginning that the EU don't trust the UK government, and obviously with good reason, which is why they insisted on agreeing on the three main points, the border, citizens rights and the settlement before anything else. They have only been talking about a framework of what a future deal could look like but no actual trade discussions which they said they will not start until after the UK leaves.
The EU are not as gullible as the Brexiteers.

 

[spontaneus1]

They take them in the EU - which is foreign. Their NI seat is fully used.

why wouldn't SF take up seats in Westminster in what is the single biggest issue facing Ireland since the formation.

All because they " hate the English". And I will compare them to the DUP as they are nothing but a crowd of shysters who have done nothing for their people. Look at West Belfast. An economic wasteland. Best in the West my arse

Comparing SF taking their seats in the EU Parliament to Westminister is intentionally disingenuous and you know it. There plenty you can critic them for so no idea why you taken this a bone to pick with them.

 

[Wibble]

It is like an episode of Yes Prime Minister omly without the laughs.

Hard to see this bunch of incompetents doing anything other than lurching out hard Brexit style. This will be disasterous for the economy and will also likely destroy the Good Friday Agreement, which could well lead us back to the bad old days of The Troubles.

I despair.

 

[alsabi]

Theresa May being told to channel her inner Boudicca. Boudicca famously secured a 400-year long 'time-limited transition' from Roman rule.

 

[sun_tzu]

It is like an episode of Yes Prime Minister omly without the laughs.

Hard to see this bunch of incompetents doing anything other than lurching out hard Brexit style. This will be disasterous for the economy and will also likely destroy the Good Friday Agreement, which could well lead us back to the bad old days of The Troubles.

I despair.

yes but Make Britain Great Again and 350m a week for the NHS and kick the darkies out regain control of our boarders etc

 

[bonsaiboy]

The Tories will simply not call one. Not in a million years.

As long as Corbyn's position remains to Brexit, they won't want to call one because they believe he might win it.

If he shifted his stance to remain (or at least to a second referendum with the option to remain), then they might consider it because the GE would then be fought on that point: Tories the party of Brexit, Labour the party of remain.

 

[Silva]

As long as Corbyn's position remains to Brexit, they won't want to call one because they believe he might win it.

If he shifted his stance to remain (or at least to a second referendum with the option to remain), then they might consider it because the GE would then be fought on that point: Tories the party of Brexit, Labour the party of remain.

that would just lead to another hung parliament since the country voted largely along those lines in 2017 anyway, if anything labour might take a couple of LD seats and the tories are going to lose some Scottish seats regardless what happens so they'd go from being able to have a coalition with the DUP to being completely unable to pass any laws

 

[Relfy]

It's just an utter clusterfeck. I can't say I trust either side to deliver what the country needs, and it has become so clear that the people in power are even more self serving than I ever believed. We have no real opposition, the current government is in turmoil, there's no answers and resolution. I really think Cameron has got away with this scott free. They thought that it would be so easy to win the referendum they never bothered to put an argument together and look at the result.

 

[Simbo]

that would just lead to another hung parliament since the country voted largely along those lines in 2017 anyway, if anything labour might take a couple of LD seats and the tories are going to lose some Scottish seats regardless what happens so they'd go from being able to have a coalition with the DUP to being completely unable to pass any laws

They definitely didn't. Despite Labour MPs being something like 95% remainers, the leader isn't and just offered a soft Brexit. I voted tory purely as a vote for the lesser evil, in my view.

If Labour promised a 2nd referendum with the option of remain, they would absolutely clean up, it would be a guaranteed majority in a general election.

 

[Silva]

They definitely didn't. Despite Labour MPs being something like 95% remainers, the leader isn't and just offered a soft Brexit. I voted tory purely as a vote for the lesser evil, in my view.

If Labour promised a 2nd referendum with the option of remain, they would absolutely clean up, it would be a guaranteed majority in a general election.

leave constituencies went tory remain labour, if the gap widens all that will happen is safe seats become safer because that's already where leavers and remainers live and both parties are already at the 40% mark which has for decades been a winning number, there's not going to any serious movement if the vote is on bexit

 

[Cheesy]

They definitely didn't. Despite Labour MPs being something like 95% remainers, the leader isn't and just offered a soft Brexit. I voted tory purely as a vote for the lesser evil, in my view.

If Labour promised a 2nd referendum with the option of remain, they would absolutely clean up, it would be a guaranteed majority in a general election.

He's been supporting a hard Brexit for the most part, albeit Labour's policy on this has been confused and incoherent from beginning to end.

 

[Sweet Square]

.

They definitely didn't. Despite Labour MPs being something like 95% remainers, the leader isn't and just offered a soft Brexit. I voted tory purely as a vote for the lesser evil, in my view.

If Labour promised a 2nd referendum with the option of remain, they would absolutely clean up, it would be a guaranteed majority in a general election.

Out of interest how did you come to this conclusion ? Its a genuine question.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

This is what the prime minister’s spokesman said about the cabinet meeting.

[May] said we have made progress on a huge number of issues in the negotiations but there remain sticking points in two key areas. The PM said it is not possible for her or any UK prime minister to sign up to an agreement that would lead to a customs border down the Irish Sea. She said we also need to ensure that we do not have a situation where the UK can be kept indefinitely in the backstop against our will ...

The cabinet strongly supported the prime minister over the importance of maintaining the integrity of the union. The cabinet also agreed that we must be able to ensure that we cannot be kept in the backstop arrangement indefinitely.

The PM said there will no doubt be challenging moments ahead. That is in the nature of negotiations. She said she is committed to securing a Brexit that delivers on the referendum result, safeguards jobs and security and which preserves our union.

The spokesman also gave reporters a direct quote from what May told her cabinet. She said:

I’m convinced that if we as a government stand together and stand firm we can achieve this.

The backstop has to be indefinite you wazzock, that's the whole point. The EU aren't going to accept anything else.

Chance of a deal : zero

 

[sun_tzu]

leave constituencies went tory remain labour, if the gap widens all that will happen is safe seats become safer because that's already where leavers and remainers live and both parties are already at the 40% mark which has for decades been a winning number, there's not going to any serious movement if the vote is on bexit

so 60% of Labour constituencies voted leave
https://fullfact.org/europe/did-maj...bour-constituencies-vote-leave-eu-referendum/

and 63% of overall constituencies voted leave
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/7...ir-constituents-Article-50-WOULD-be-triggered

01 out of 632 MPs represent constituencies which voted for Brexit in the referendum.

The number equates to 63 per cent of constituencies

the only likley move if it was purely on brexit is the conservatives getting a whopping majority due to first past the post

 

[Silva]

so 60% of Labour constituencies voted leave
https://fullfact.org/europe/did-maj...bour-constituencies-vote-leave-eu-referendum/

and 63% of overall constituencies voted leave
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/7...ir-constituents-Article-50-WOULD-be-triggered



the only likley move if it was purely on brexit is the conservatives getting a whopping majority due to first past the post

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40630242
the 2017 swing was brexit compliant, any further move brexitward will only entrench constituency majorities thanks the quirks of FPTP it won't cause major constituency realignments

obviously this is all conjecture anyway because we don't have the ward by ward brexit/2017 breakdowns which would be more informative for the next GE with 50 fewer parliamentary seats, but from local council patterns a 2 point inbuilt advantage for the tories is expected (their winning line being 2 points lower than labours) which could mean another 2005 election where one party wins a clear majority with the same share of the vote

 

[Simbo]

.

Out of interest how did you come to this conclusion ? Its a genuine question.

Having ranked them pretty much level on Brexit, I mainly vote on the economy and I just couldn't believe a word of Corbyn's manifesto... desperate popularist policies of just throwing bags of cash at everything, fully paid for with a corp tax hike. Like a school child came up with it, who knew the economy was so simple eh?

 

[Sweet Square]

Having ranked them pretty much level on Brexit, I mainly vote on the economy and I just couldn't believe a word of Corbyn's manifesto... desperate popularist policies of just throwing bags of cash at everything, fully paid for with a corp tax hike. Like a school child came up with it, who knew the economy was so simple eh?

Sorry for the questions but...........do you know how the economy works ?

 

[Simbo]

Sorry for the questions but...........do you know how the economy works ?

Better than Corbyn apparently? Of course that's not true, I'm sure he has a very good understanding as required by his position and experience. His position also requiring him to have a good view on the average Joe's understanding of the ecomomy (very little), and therefore what nonsense he can get away with spouting for easy votes.

Anyway, make your point, what are you getting at?

 

[Sweet Square]

Anyway, make your point, what are you getting at?

That I get why people vote tory on such things as a hard brexit or if they own a small business. I was just surprised that someone voted for the Tories on the lesser evil idea(Considering all thing evil things the tories do - selling weapons to the Saudis, killing disable people with the benefits policy etc.)

Its one reason I've never heard before.

 

[Simbo]

That I get why people vote tory on such things as a hard brexit or if they own a small business. I was just surprised that someone voted for the Tories on the lesser evil idea(Considering all thing evil things the tories do - selling weapons to the Saudis, killing disable people with the benefits policy etc.)

Its one reason I've never heard before.

Shit happens, and it sticks to whoever is in charge. At the moment that's the tories, when too much of it builds up, that will flip to Labour and it'll stick to them instead.

Or you under the impression Corbyn would somehow stop BAE from selling to the Saudi's?

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Donald Tusk, the president of the European council, has been speaking to journalists in Brussels. He has issued a challenge to Theresa May. He said:

Unfortunately the report on the state of the negotiations that I got from Michel Barnier today, as well as yesterday’s debate in the House of Commons, gives me no grounds for optimism before tomorrow’s European council on Brexit.

As I see it, the only source of hope for a deal for now is the goodwill and determination on both sides.

However, for a breakthrough to take place, besides goodwill we need new facts.

Tomorrow I am going to ask Prime Minister May whether she has concrete proposals on how to break the impasse. Only such proposals can determine if a breakthrough is possible.

While working on a Brexit deal, we also need to make sure that we are prepared in case an agreement is not possible or in case it is rejected. Therefore tomorrow the leaders will discuss how to step up our preparations for a no deal scenario.

But, as I have already stressed, the fact that we are preparing for a no deal scenario must not under any circumstances lead us away from making every effort to reach the best agreement possible for all sides.

 

[Sweet Square]

Shit happens, and it sticks to whoever is in charge. At the moment that's the tories, when too much of it builds up, that will flip to Labour and it'll stick to them instead.

Or you under the impression Corbyn would somehow stop BAE from selling to the Saudi's?

I don't know what your on here - shit happens because of government policy.

As for stopping BAE selling to the Saudi, the german suspended their sales and I can easily image the a UK governed by a left Labour party doing the same.

Corbyn already said similar -

The Labour leader urged her to use the meeting – the start of a three-day state visit in all but name – to “halt the arms supplies and demand an immediate ceasefire in Yemen”.

 

[Kentonio]

Donald Tusk, the president of the European council, has been speaking to journalists in Brussels. He has issued a challenge to Theresa May. He said:

Unfortunately the report on the state of the negotiations that I got from Michel Barnier today, as well as yesterday’s debate in the House of Commons, gives me no grounds for optimism before tomorrow’s European council on Brexit.

As I see it, the only source of hope for a deal for now is the goodwill and determination on both sides.

However, for a breakthrough to take place, besides goodwill we need new facts.

Tomorrow I am going to ask Prime Minister May whether she has concrete proposals on how to break the impasse. Only such proposals can determine if a breakthrough is possible.

While working on a Brexit deal, we also need to make sure that we are prepared in case an agreement is not possible or in case it is rejected. Therefore tomorrow the leaders will discuss how to step up our preparations for a no deal scenario.

But, as I have already stressed, the fact that we are preparing for a no deal scenario must not under any circumstances lead us away from making every effort to reach the best agreement possible for all sides.

Sounds like they’re on the verge of giving up.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Sounds like they’re on the verge of giving up.

May's in the last chance saloon. There is only one solution. May won't accept the backstop because the only solution will still be the only solution in the future.
She has nowhere to go.
The EU just don't want a change of government before the UK leaves, but yes I think they've resigned themselves to no deal.

 

[Honest John]

Donald Tusk, the president of the European council, has been speaking to journalists in Brussels. He has issued a challenge to Theresa May. He said:

Unfortunately the report on the state of the negotiations that I got from Michel Barnier today, as well as yesterday’s debate in the House of Commons, gives me no grounds for optimism before tomorrow’s European council on Brexit.

As I see it, the only source of hope for a deal for now is the goodwill and determination on both sides.

However, for a breakthrough to take place, besides goodwill we need new facts.

Tomorrow I am going to ask Prime Minister May whether she has concrete proposals on how to break the impasse. Only such proposals can determine if a breakthrough is possible.

While working on a Brexit deal, we also need to make sure that we are prepared in case an agreement is not possible or in case it is rejected. Therefore tomorrow the leaders will discuss how to step up our preparations for a no deal scenario.

But, as I have already stressed, the fact that we are preparing for a no deal scenario must not under any circumstances lead us away from making every effort to reach the best agreement possible for all sides.

Make it look hard and nobody else will want to do it. There are too many contradicting statements and views for me in all of this. I suspect a large element of playing to the respective galleries going on.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Make it look hard and nobody else will want to do it. There are too many contradicting statements and views for me in all of this. I suspect a large element of playing to the respective galleries going on.

It boils down to does the UK leave the EU and break the GFA or not. May is trying not to upset her party and losing her job.
The EU are not playing to the gallery and there's nothing contradictory of what the EU have said, they've repeated the same thing since day one and this is why the UK have never understood the EU. They are not listening.

 

[Stanley Road]

They definitely didn't. Despite Labour MPs being something like 95% remainers, the leader isn't and just offered a soft Brexit. I voted tory purely as a vote for the lesser evil, in my view.

If Labour promised a 2nd referendum with the option of remain, they would absolutely clean up, it would be a guaranteed majority in a general election.

Did you also vote for Cameroon in 2015?