Westminster Politics

sun_tzu

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Buster15 said:
Hopefully you are right.
This story is pretty much at saturation level and public attention span is being stretched.
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I think best case scenario for Johnson is he limps on till the covid review... announces all restrictions will be lifted and steps down and agrees to stay on till a successor is appointed

Other scenarios are the Sue grey report comes out before then or enough letters go into the 1922 committee before then

I think even if he scrapes through a vote of no confidence he's still finished
 

Buster15

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sun_tzu said:
I think best case scenario for Johnson is he limps on till the covid review... announces all restrictions will be lifted and steps down and agrees to stay on till a successor is appointed

Other scenarios are the Sue grey report comes out before then or enough letters go into the 1922 committee before then

I think even if he scrapes through a vote of no confidence he's still finished
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Understood.
I have mixed views about it.
While I totally dislike him and how he operates, he is opening the door for a Labour resurgence, at least in the polls.
And I fail to understand the appeal of Sunak. But I guess that his squeaky clean persona makes him popular. It would be interesting to see how he squares up to Starmer were he to replace BoJo.
 

sun_tzu

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Buster15 said:
Understood.
I have mixed views about it.
While I totally dislike him and how he operates, he is opening the door for a Labour resurgence, at least in the polls.
And I fail to understand the appeal of Sunak. But I guess that his squeaky clean persona makes him popular. It would be interesting to see how he squares up to Starmer were he to replace BoJo.
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Would be interesting to see what happens with sunak... I can't help but feel that Cummings might have some further stuff to drop ... I mean the garden where all the parties happened is shared between no10 and no11
 

sun_tzu

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Raulduke said:
Watching the Tories implode is just :drool:

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Suspect the Conservative party will end up being fairly disciplined with it... they usually are and they will dispatch him fairly quickly and easily

I think removal of covid restrictions and then leaving to spend more time with his newborn will be the end solution

The interesting bit will be do people stand aside for rishi or does it end up being a fight.... I dont think saj, gove or truss will be willing to just stand by... I think hunt might have another crack as well

That could get interesting if it becomes a dirty fight
 

WPMUFC

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Mickeza said:
If they trigger a leadership challenge do we think Boris will fight it?
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He'll pivot to full attack on the contenders. I have no doubt truss et al are about to have leaks against them as well.

He'll fight it by trying to destroy the party :drool: :drool:
 

sun_tzu

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Mickeza said:
No this just triggers a leadership contest. It won’t be a vote of no confidence. It’ll be interesting to see if any big hitters run. I don’t think they will - I sense now isn’t the time.
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Don't think so

If the 54 letters are sent to the 1922 Committee, then a vote of no confidence is held, with Conservative MPs voting in support or against the leader. If more than 50 per cent vote against the leader, they are ousted.

Any leader who loses a confidence vote is not allowed to take part in the subsequent leadership contest.
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https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/n...922-committee-boris-johnson-explained-1397123
 

sun_tzu

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Mickeza said:
Ah! Okay - he’ll survive that surely? Now I’m remembering same happened to May and she survived the first time right?
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In theory if he gets 181 votes then he's safe for a year

In reality just scraping through would probably be untenable ... I think given that with the enquiries etc he might not even get the 181... in truth I wouldn't be surprised if he stepped down to avoid the vote
 

sun_tzu

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Meeting in the morning to discuss lifting covid restrictions

Could see boris announcing that and leaving at the same time... could be his fig leaf of cover to say he's taken the uk through covid... he's got brexit done and now it's the time to be with his family

Really don't think he's got the appetite for a fight he will probably loose

Could be gone by pmqs... if not that's going to be brutal for him
 

Don't Kill Bill

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Pexbo said:
Why are you making up the quote? She said:

“You can't say anything about the immigrants because you're saying that you're … but all these eastern European what are coming in, where are they flocking from?”


You don’t think that’s bigoted?
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I think it is a bit.

Ultimately though I think she was worried about people like you. Living in 1 bed flats no outdoor space and shared bathrooms.

"10 years prior to that 5.47m people had come to the uk and that was 8.7% of the total uk population)"

We were never going to be able to build enough housing for all the people coming. You are now stuck with the consequences of that policy, while calling her a bigot for pointing out the eventual detrimental effect you seem upset about.

Just a thought for debate nothing personal.
 

Pexbo

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Buster15 said:
What are you expecting?
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I’m expecting enough letters to force a vote and for Boris to narrowly avoid a VONC because there’s enough shrewed politicians still in the Tory party to know that Boris is their lightening rod right now and they need him to ride this out for a while yet. One thing is for certain though - he’s not going to lead them to another election and they will time his dismissal just right and there will be a huge media campaign behind the next leader (Sunak) which will inevitably result in a swing back up to 42-44% Tory support leading into the next election.
 
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