450 quid for myself, the missus and our daughter... bargain.
Fair play to Heathrow though for showing the kind of initiative that the dogshit Tory government seems incapable of.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
450 quid for myself, the missus and our daughter... bargain.
Fair play to Heathrow though for showing the kind of initiative that the dogshit Tory government seems incapable of.
We're flying into Heathrow in early September. If Italy's been put on the quarantine list by then, we'll definitely go for this. It would be better than spending half our time in the UK stuck inside, even if it's expensive.
Looking at the numbers it will take a serious escalation for Italy to go on the list by then.
I've had it every year since I had flu ibadly in 2009. Only had it (probably) once since and then it was mild.
Last edited:
UK 6 deaths and 1182 cases
840 cases in Italy today. The change seems to have (predictably) been the August travel season and the removal of a requirement for masks at all times.
I'm on the hunt for a weight set now as I cant see gyms staying open long at this rate.
I'm on the hunt for a weight set now as I cant see gyms staying open long at this rate.
Johnson and Johnson starting stage 3 trials next month, with 60k volunteers.
I am becoming increasingly confident that there will be massive vaccinations early next year.
I am becoming increasingly confident that there will be massive vaccinations early next year.
The lower death numbers, what are they more likely to be due to :
a. Better tracking/tracing and testing capacity
b. Being better at treating the disease
c. Still quite early of the cases lifecycle
Its probably a combination of many of those factors, but would be interesting to know what's primarily driving it. If it's better tracking/tracing - what does that tell us about the 'true' number of infections during the earlier wave
d. Less care homes getting infected.
e. more 20-30 year olds in case numbers.
f. Quite possibly a fair amount of people susceptible to dying of Covid-19 have already lost their lives to the virus.
The “true” number during the first wave in harder hit places was likely absolutely through the roof as you hint on. As early as late Feb many places were utterly riddled.
Agreed. Fingers crossed.
Looks like that. The elderly and other vulnerable are more than likely still keeping themselves isolated which in a way is easier to do as a lot will be retired and getting their pensions. As you said you would think the higher case numbers will be younger folk having to get on with things and earn a living. All good really, just need a vaccine now to free up the elderly and the vulnerable so they can get out and about again.
I’ve been assuming c as by far the most important factor. Although that assumes that cases three or four weeks ago were quite low. Can anyone who is closer to the Uk figures than me remember what sort of case number were we seeing every day towards the end of last month? If they were similar to what we’re seeing now then you can’t really assume that deaths will take off over the next few weeks. Which would be very reassuring.
Portugal, who’s increased mortality went through the roof all through July and start of August, despite them reporting low Covid deaths, now off the UK quarantine list.
Appears bullshitting pays off.
Appears bullshitting pays off.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases
Friday 24 July - 768
Saturday 25 July - 767
Sunday 26 July - 747
Monday 27 July - 685
Tuesday 28 July - 581
Wednesday 29 July - 763
Thursday 30 July - 846
Friday 31 July - 880
Thursday 13 August - 1129
Friday 14 August - 1441
Saturday 15 August - 1077
Sunday 16 August - 1040
Monday 17 August - 713
Tuesday 18 August - 1089
Wednesday 19 August - 812
Thursday 20 August - 1182
Last edited:
Cool. Thanks.
Unfortunately it does look like it has risen slightly.
Risen quite a lot but assuming mortality now represents cases 3 or 4 weeks ago, then mortality in another 3 or 4 weeks might not be bad at all.
Obviously big worry is cases going exponential and downstream consequences of that. Which could be horrendous.
Hopefully more testing to go alongside less hospital admissions.
Good news in Australia. NSW only 1 new case and Victoria under 200 new cases for the first time in a few weeks. Lockdown is working well.
I just read that, great news. Also impressive how Aussie has been able get some control over the virus and keep other states safe.
What were the NZ figures today?
Not looking good in Spain and France.
France saw 4771 cases yesterday.
France saw 4771 cases yesterday.
Not looking good in Spain and France.
France saw 4771 cases yesterday.
How are hospital admissions looking in France @JPRouve? And is it the same areas as the first wave seeing increases?
The BBC article said it hasn't changed much to it being younger people.
In Spain however deaths are said to be more than 10x higher than last month, the average age of confirmed cases in about 39, lower than 60 during the height so they're worried things will get worse if it reaches more older people.
Hospitalisations are low and there is a negligeable increase if you take into account people that are returning home. As for the difference with the first wave is that it's pretty much all the big cities/dense areas that are seeing an increase in cases with Mayennes and Laval being the strange one because their community infection has been strangely high for a while. Funnily enough if you take a population density map of France and the current incidence map, they kind of match. Basically the Empty Diagonal is fine but the rest is seeing increases.
Not looking good in Spain and France.
France saw 4771 cases yesterday.
Fecking hell. Spain is in trouble. If deaths are already on the up too then it’s going to get ugly soon.
I wonder why their cases are shooting up so much faster than UK/Germany/Italy. Anyone got any ideas?
The younger demographic in most european countries have really let everyone down. There's obviously an argument about government control vs personal responsibility but they really should understand the gravity of their actions.
It seems likely the youth wave of infections is going to kick start infections rising across other demographics. Can anyone see any reasons it wouldn't?
It seems likely the youth wave of infections is going to kick start infections rising across other demographics. Can anyone see any reasons it wouldn't?
11 community transmissions today, up from yesterdays 5 community transmissions and 1 border catch. When we were this low the first time there was a week or so of 2-3 good days and then a little spike then 2-3 good days. I think that also holds true for the countries with bigger numbers but who are getting better, every now and then a daily spike. The good news out of this set of new cases over the last couple of weeks for us has been its exposed some weaknesses and gaps in the system so hopefully they are tightened up for the next breach we get which will happen. Its going to be an ongoing process.
Maybe elderly/vulnerable people continuing to be very careful? When the virus first hit they would have been packed into pubs, churches etc and allowing grandkids climb all over them. I get the impression most elderly people have radically changed their behaviour and will continue to do so for a while. Also, care homes have much betted procedures in place to protect them.
Having said all that, once enough young people are infected it’s inevitable that a proportion of the most vulnerable will too.
BBC has an article to answer that very question.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53832981
It's nothing to worry about yet. 75% of cases are asymptomatic, 3% need hospital, and 0.3% are dying. It's some combination of younger people, better testing, better treatment, more awareness and probably others I am forgetting. We are much better prepared for round two.
Yes old people and pretty much everyone were caught out in Feb/Mar going about their normal life. Behaviour has completely changed and also there will be a large difference in testing and general awareness. A rise in cases will make the news early so older people can keep their guard up and not stay around younger friends and relatives.
Still, younger people look after the old in various care homes and will eventually pass some of it on even with protocols in place and also depending on culture, some elderly will be living at home with younger people.
Still, younger people look after the old in various care homes and will eventually pass some of it on even with protocols in place and also depending on culture, some elderly will be living at home with younger people.
It certainly feels inevitable. I'm sure growth will be slower and i expect a lot less deaths so it's not as doom and gloom as last time.
I'm just disappointed in the 18-25 group who seem like they will have indirectly caused deaths. It's not even just deaths but they'll have created further economic harm, closure of businesses, loss of freedom for vulnerable. All with a vaccine round the corner!
Hopefully governments cut off the sources of transmission and the change in lifestyles makes it naturally peter out.
I get that sense in and around where I live.
And shielding may have officially ended, but I (like many others) am continuing to curtail my usual behaviour.
I do worry about the elderly population in particular. My grandmother hasn't left her home since March and you can see it has really take its toll. And we're only in August.
I feel a little uncomfortable with people being blamed for deaths when the Government is giving people financial incentive to go out.
People can go out in a responsible way. I’m not a fan of finger-pointing either but social media is full of footage of young people doing completely reckless partying. Which is a worry.
To be honest, I think I’d have done the same at their age. You feel immortal and rarely consider downstream consequences of your actions. Plus the urge to socialise and party is incredibly strong. It’s the way we’re wired.
And many will be and could still be passing it on. Yes there will be plenty of footage of that but nobody is going to be sharing footage of people being responsible.
Don’t get me wrong, there’s no doubt many people will only be thinking of themselves, but the Government knew this would happen and will be delighted that it’s those people who will be getting the blame now. Not only did they know it will happen, they’ve encouraged it to happen. I know they have the difficult balancing act between public health and economy but the Eat Out to Help Out Scheme, why do you have to sit in? The business would benefit more financially if take out was allowed. Not that many aren’t doing that already.
And telling people to get back on public transport and return to their workplaces etc. The under 30 demographic are the exact same as those who work in retail, bars and restaurants.
Not that I'm saying there aren't a lot of irresponsible young people out there determined to meet their mates and party at any cost, but the rise in cases won't be totally down to that.
Eating in keeps more restaurant staff in employment than eating out. Plus getting people out of their house increases footfall on the streets, which might benefit other small businesses. It’s a tough one. We do need people out and about to keep the economy ticking over. But only if they are sensible. And people are rarely sensible after a few drinks.