This is just to tell others "just shut up or you know what it might happen to you"
Westminster Politics
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) was joined by comedian Ali Woods to look back at the best and worst moments of a rollercoaster season with the annual United Hour Awards.
Has Ten Hag been sacked yet? We're not sure and we hope not, but it's looking more likely as the days pass.
Who should replace him and why is it taking so long to make a decision?
It really is a ridiculous electoral system when Reform UK (whatever one thinks about them) receive 13% of the vote...but no seats.
There is never an incentive for a winning party to change the system. The Tories actually do have a big incentive to do it now (18% votes 2% seats according to this), but it will hurt them in 2029/34, and in the long run generally.It really is a ridiculous electoral system when Reform UK (whatever one thinks about them) receive 13% of the vote...but no seats.
I get that but it's the seeming lack of interest or enthusiasm amongst the public that really gets me. The stock answer from the political parties is that the first past the post system produces strong and stable government...and the public more or less parrots this received opinion, even though such claims are completely discredited.
There's just a different cultural outlook on such things in Britain I suppose.
You are right about what is the stock answer. It is laughable considering what has happened since 2015 alone. There is an innate conservatism about the system. It drives me to distraction. It also doesn't help that we don't have a constitution is a normal sense or an education system that teaches future citizens about how the country is run and basically like voting and civics.
The British public are generally blind to vote % as all they've ever known is number of seats won = how popular a party is in an election.
Prime example was the last GE. Tories got 43% of the popular vote but due to the number of seats won under FPTP, the concesus is that a huge majority of people voted for them. In a true PR system they wouldn't have been able to form a government.
Under a PR system the Tories would be wiped out. Labour would splinter into at least 2 parties. As they are the only shows in town, they'll never allow it to be on the agenda.
FPTP isn't the main problem in politics, that would be money. Corruption and funding via special interest groups and lobbyists.
There isn't a perfect system and we in the UK are definitely having a moment politically and institutionally. I don't see PR in Scotland as producing better governance or intrinsically more democratic outcomes, as a comparison.
FPTP has strengths which the people seem to prefer and to me that is all that matters.
I think its hold on UK thinking is about mandate and means rather than pure proportionalism.
There isn't a perfect system and we in the UK are definitely having a moment politically and institutionally. I don't see PR in Scotland as producing better governance or intrinsically more democratic outcomes, as a comparison.
FPTP has strengths which the people seem to prefer and to me that is all that matters.
I think its hold on UK thinking is about mandate and means rather than pure proportionalism.
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How in the world do people think he's a better leader than Corbyn? I know Labour will likely win any GE but that's going to be a freebie given the absolute sh*t the Tories have the put the country into and nothing to do with Stamer himself. You can put a donkey in his place and Labour would still win.
It's so bizarre how brazenly politicians just completely ignore questions and give a prepared response and journalists just let them get away with it.
I think that's a bit unfair, you are absolutely right that the Tories have created their own destruction, but the size of Starmer's victory will be interesting and will have quite a lot to do with him trying to make Labour as small a target as possible in the eyes of all voters except the far left.
They wouldn't be getting 50% of the vote without him moving to the right generally but especially on immigration, Brexit, culture war issues, etc.
Starmer isn't a popular figure. He and no party, not even the Tories get 50% of the vote. So by what he's said so far, he's going to have approximately the same policies but do them better than the Tories. He's either in the wrong party or the UK is completely f*cked for ever more.
With no bias I have seen what he's said and what he's proposed regarding Brexit, immigration, small boats, climate etc, free ports, economy, NHS etc. Beyond hopeless. But he'll get voted in at the GE and Labour will be voted out in 2029. Labour have the wrong leader. Although who is the right one, who knows?
That's pretty much the pitch right now, and it seems to be working extremely well. TINA.
I don't know if it will work longer-term (2029), I guess it depends on the next Tory leader, state of the economy, and if the press goes after the kind of corruption that brought Tory polling down.
Corbyn ran against someone that created an entirely fake persona, who literally created a buffoon self-caricature, and that version of labour gave the conservatives:
- 80 seat majority
- Decimated traditional labour seats
- an 8% swing against the party
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/26925-how-britain-voted-2019-general-election
Elections have consequences. Majorities have consequences. Maybe those responsible for running the labour party into the ditch of irrelevancy for 5 years should've thought about what would happen when the bubble they created burst and when it came time to planning how to fix that mess how they would stop the labour right taking control?
But hey, it's all moot now. The labour left has their ideological war ready for the Starmer government and thats all that matters.
Any other leader would be 40 points ahead, right?
Because he is too decent as a human being to be a successful politician to be elected as PM. To be a successful politician to become PM you need to be a piece of shit of a liar with lack of human decency. All UK PM's fits this criteria, specially the last labour PM.
So do tell..how does the "decent human" get into power? Sounds like electoral politics cannot handle someone that is "decent", so how do you get them into power?
You can get somewhat decent blokes in real democracies with the highest democratic indexes like Sweden, Norway. But flawed democracies like the Uk is not easy and in the US impossible.
If that is the case, and we'll keep it to UK election and politics, how does the UK left get elected? If a "decent human" can't win a westminster majority, does that mean power is ceded to the extreme reactionary right until revolution? Or does compromise take place within left, centre-left and centre-right circles to ensure they can win majority away from those other forces? With the balance internally hopefully favoured to the centre-left and left.
Look i might be "devil advocate" things too much here, but can you not see how dealing yourself out of the decision-making circle gives these people free-rein to "pull an Elphicke"? Everything Starmer is doing has no negative impact on the polls, so with the centre-right in full flight and the left vacating the arena, i don't know how the "the decent human" or "goals of the left" ever get achieved without compromise or revolution. And i tend to favour non-violence over violence.
To me Starmer is just beginning to 'lengthen his stride', ready for the GE starting whistle to blow.
The welcoming of Natalie Elphicke, despite objections from within his ranks, and visiting her in Dover, he is in effect parking his tanks on Sunak's lawn..... "At the GE you want to make Rwanda the answer to small boats, come on then let's do that".
Or perhaps doing a Mike Summerbee, and getting his retaliation in first
But if there is no alternative and the public continue to want the same thing, time after time, the UK is stuck in this spiral caused by FPTP voting system. To get out of this if you don't change the voting system you need a charismatic strong leader who can convince the public that a change of approach for the better is needed. Not more of the same but done differently. Starmer will be swallowed up and spat out within three years. A new leader might offer something different.
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It's infuriating to me that the Rwanda bollocks has become such a huge policy when the NHS is at it's knees. This GE should all be about the plan to recover the NHS from the brink rather small boats entering Dover. It's actually tragic how out of touch these fecking Politicians are.
Clutching at straws here, are we Paul?
Starmer's getting into his stride, one or two wobbles, but no change in the overall predicted voting in the polls.
This latest 'gutsy approach to face up with Sunak and with one of his own (now ex- MP's)... to call him out over one of Rishi's 'front and centre promises' suggest Sir Keir is readying to strike the GE battlefield colours and encouraging everybody to join in... repent and come and join us!
Starmer's been brainwashed like everyone else seems to be - you read that he's going to stop the Rwanda scheme - finally some common sense - and then read what he's proposing - and then hold your head in despair.
If immigration was the issue that scared the British public to death - why nobody mentions the 1.2million legal immigrants? the totally unknown number of real illegal immigrants, visa overstayers etc but instead concentrate on a tiny number of people on a small boat who even in Starmer's rhetoric are threatening the Uk's border security.
The real issue is how are they going to fix the economy, public services and get out of the Brexit death spiral - for which they seem to have no (sensible) answers whatsoever.
Starmer will regret this move because he's so naïve, but it's just a small sign of how weak and insecure he is. So he's now got his own Labour candidate in Dover plus Elphicke in the same consituency. Elphicke's a nutcase. When the small boats increase over the summer and the EU introduce the EES in the Autumn plus the usual hold-ups since Brexit during the holidays - I don't think Elphicke will be able to control herself.Clutching at straws here, are we Paul?
Starmer's getting into his stride, one or two wobbles, but no change in the overall predicted voting in the polls.
This latest 'gutsy approach to face up with Sunak and with one of his own (now ex- MP's)... to call him out over one of Rishi's 'front and centre promises' suggest Sir Keir is readying to strike the GE battlefield colours and encouraging everybody to join in... repent and come and join us!
There's no danger of him losing the election in 2024, as I said before, a three legged donkey will win for Labour. I'm thinking 2024-2029. Having failed to implement his Tory like policies the public will rather have the real thing in 2029.
Yes, it is bollocks, and that's why Starmer's calling Sunak out on it; even if some people were legally deported it would barely dent the numbers wanting to come illegally and/or legally. Immigration now has to be dealt with properly and Starmer is signalling he knows that. Proper routes made available for asylum/other legally entitled migrants and an end to illegal small boats, these being stopped or greatly reduced by a proper and sufficiently power full approach... and Sunak with his 'batshit' Rwanda plans has already identified the money.
The NHS needs urgent attention, and with longer term 'injections' of finance and staffing, which it will get from Labour, but not from the Tories, who if they do survive will go even stronger on privatising the NHS. However, Labour has to win and win big at the GE otherwise the Tories even in defeat, will have blunted the edge of Labour's transforming sword
I think because of Sunak's pledges it makes sense, puts the Tories on the back foot and probably helps reform.To me Starmer is just beginning to 'lengthen his stride', ready for the GE starting whistle to blow.
The welcoming of Natalie Elphicke, despite objections from within his ranks, and visiting her in Dover, he is in effect parking his tanks on Sunak's lawn..... "At the GE you want to make Rwanda the answer to small boats, come on then let's do that".
Or perhaps doing a Mike Summerbee, and getting his retaliation in first
I am despite my support for him not totally convinced on Starmer as a PM but to think Corbyn was a better leader of a mainstream center-left party is delusional.
There is this group of extreme left wingers/pressure groups who have come up with ideologies they claim as progressive even when they are not, but if you disagree with them you must be right wing hence the red tory nonsense.
All to play for six months out, no one would have thought that after JC.
You take my breath away Paul you really do!!
I will accept that scenario might just play out if, with only a small win at the 2024 GE, Labour has to apply only emergency treatment and is unable to 'move the dial'. The public are fickle and may well return the running of the nation to "the natural party of power"
I agree.
"Spiritual leader" may be, but leader of a party (any sort of party) that had to do battle in the real world, no sorry, that was never on!
As I said before it's nothing to do with the size of the majority. Look at the Tories - they cleaned up in 2019 and look where they will be in 2024.You take my breath away Paul you really do!!
I will accept that scenario might just play out if, with only a small win at the 2024 GE, Labour has to apply only emergency treatment and is unable to 'move the dial'. The public are fickle and may well return the running of the nation to "the natural party of power"
So what do we know so far.
Brexit - no, it's never going to work. Much worse to come in the coming years.
No money according to Labour for public services , NHS, can't do anything.
Climate, most of that seems to be abandoned apart from some windfarms that no-one's interested in investing in - now too expensive and not viable. There are still about 50 farms yet to be completed from tory plans.
Freeports - this is a disaster yet to happen that Starmer seems keen on - something for the British public to discover in due course.
Immigration - needed. Asylum seekers - still no legal routes according to Starmer, just him chasing round Europe looking for criminal gangs. Seriously. this is supposed to stop people wanting to come to the UK. It's only made to a major issue because of Sunak and Starmer and all the other idiotic politicians to be used as scapegoats.
That's just scratching the surface. There needs to be radical change and that's not happening with Starmer.
I've absolutely no idea what you're expecting to happen under your moving the dial.
Nothing to see here folks!
I find this shit particularly enraging, it's got far worse in recent years too.
To be fair, we've got a situation with climate change that is threatening to cause worldwide food shortages and our government are spending their time debating and legistalting about the signs on toilet doors.
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The sort of legislation that improves the lives of millions not just a few, e.g NHS Act and Education Act after WW2, subsequently changed and vastly improved the lives of millions of ordinary people, giving them education opportunities and health care provision their parents and grandparents could only have dreamed of.
This has to happen again, this time it will probably be housing/land/building etc., enough homes, properly built and insulated available to suit the needs of the majority, including those who do not have homes now, this could well be the priority.
The rights of landholders will be reformed, to prevent obstruction and hoarding of land, of construction companies, of anybody or anything which may prevent, or has prevented in the past, a suitable fair and equitable national housing policy, being implemented.
Probably also taking energy and water industries back under some sort of government control, so that upgraded national supply networks can be established and brought in to meet the needs of the future specifically climate change etc. and also information technology it's uses and control properly established and regulated.
Hence I would suspect the dial needs to (start/to) move on;
a) re-establishing and upgrading of Health and Social care provision and end of life care (for all)
b) re- introduction of an Education reform program including the upgrade of both buildings and equipment and the establishment of relevant levels of attainment and provision from Early Years through Primary, Secondary and Tertiary (Further /Higher) to Lifetime learning/retraining.
c) Control of land/building planning/construction/ servicing to provide everyone with a home, backed by law.
d) Control of energy and water provision, including nation wide interchangeable network provision to plan and provide or the future, in particular the effects of climate changes.
Clearly such an agenda cannot be even started (overall) in one term, it will need at least two/three, but a start has to be made in term one and is possible if the political will (and 'clout' in parliament) is there. Therefore a massive majority is need to overcome the inertia and to start to move the dial.
Paul before you start on about the economy, yes attention will need to be given, to undoing as far as possible, damage done via Brexit, via Covid and by the increasing prospect of expansion of wars in Europe and the middle east. Almost a government of national unity might be needed and some of Starmer's latest comments/actions also could be viewed in that way... repent and come and join us!
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...-children-b2542136.html?utm_source=reddit.com
This been posted. Grim stuff.
This been posted. Grim stuff.
Switching parties with the single goal of increasing the house price is maybe the most Westminster thing of all time.
He is a quintessential leader of ‘the Opposition’.
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