Is there any evidence anywhere that restrictions are effective against omicron?
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
It isn’t magical. It’s a virus that spreads from person to person. So restrictions which put fewer people in close proximity to each other will obviously slow spread. Here’s hoping we don’t end up needing to generate the evidence you’re looking for.
This excel file is what I'd be looking at: https://www.england.nhs.uk/statisti...d-admissions-and-beds-publication-211230.xlsx
(Just look at the bottom row if you can't be bothered taking it all in)
Those are all the available figures for December 2021.
Basically, if you look at the overall bed occupancy number rather than just covid admissions, there isn't much (if any) spike to speak of. A lot of the negative spin will focus on the second row of data (covid occupancy). But I think the bottom row of totals that's most important (covid plus non-covid occupancy).
Since people seem to be getting discharged quicker than they're being admitted (and since so many appear to be incidental infections), that means fewer patients in hospital over the course of the month. This isn't like the Delta wave when a covid admission would likely mean a lengthy stay requiring specialist treatment. You can see from the above table that the all-included bed occupancy rate is actually trending downwards despite the current wave.
The real strain on the NHS will be related to staff availability. Omicron is going to be a short sharp pinch. At this point, it's just about hoping that the pinch doesn't leave a bruise or draw blood. But given this variant's relatively mildness, I think we can be hopeful that many will be fit for work again fairly quickly.
| 01/12/2021 | 02/12/2021 | 03/12/2021 | 04/12/2021 | 05/12/2021 | 06/12/2021 | 07/12/2021 | 08/12/2021 | 09/12/2021 | 10/12/2021 | 11/12/2021 | 12/12/2021 | 13/12/2021 | 14/12/2021 | 15/12/2021 | 16/12/2021 | 17/12/2021 | 18/12/2021 | 19/12/2021 | 20/12/2021 | 21/12/2021 | 22/12/2021 | 23/12/2021 | 24/12/2021 | 25/12/2021 | 26/12/2021 | 27/12/2021 | 28/12/2021 | |
| Adult General and Acute beds - occupied by non-COVID-19 patients (as at 08:00) | 79,624 | 80,902 | 80,401 | 79,382 | 80,240 | 80,720 | 81,526 | 81,558 | 81,513 | 80,228 | 78,960 | 79,504 | 80,135 | 81,290 | 81,076 | 80,591 | 79,412 | 77,494 | 77,002 | 78,063 | 78,413 | 76,384 | 74,517 | 71,212 | 62,700 | 63,168 | 66,940 | 70,621 |
| Adult General and Acute beds - occupied by confirmed COVID-19 patients (as at 08:00) | 4,552 | 4,612 | 4,548 | 4,475 | 4,593 | 4,667 | 4,635 | 4,645 | 4,707 | 4,668 | 4,623 | 4,705 | 4,891 | 4,868 | 4,772 | 4,765 | 4,763 | 4,699 | 4,826 | 5,058 | 5,230 | 5,320 | 5,225 | 5,430 | 5,188 | 5,482 | 6,397 | 7,157 |
| Mechanical Ventilation beds - occupied by confirmed COVID-19 patients (as at 08:00) | 773 | 774 | 783 | 775 | 770 | 793 | 779 | 778 | 792 | 793 | 785 | 788 | 795 | 795 | 786 | 783 | 789 | 767 | 767 | 768 | 757 | 745 | 747 | 742 | 745 | 758 | 776 | 758 |
| Adult Critical Care beds - occupied by confirmed COVID-19 patients (as at 08:00) | 868 | 870 | 866 | 854 | 850 | 862 | 894 | 890 | 883 | 883 | 934 | 958 | 893 | 925 | 932 | 960 | 875 | 863 | 850 | 848 | 818 | 809 | 850 | 806 | 800 | 822 | 866 | 835 |
| Adult Critical Care beds - occupied by non-COVID-19 patients (as at 08:00) | 2,649 | 2,656 | 2,683 | 2,627 | 2,525 | 2,494 | 2,599 | 2,678 | 2,682 | 2,661 | 2,590 | 2,519 | 2,491 | 2,657 | 2,635 | 2,641 | 2,598 | 2,538 | 2,390 | 2,332 | 2,455 | 2,474 | 2,426 | 2,431 | 2,198 | 2,122 | 3,763 | 2,255 |
| Total on date | 88,466 | 89,814 | 89,281 | 88,113 | 88,978 | 89,536 | 90,433 | 90,549 | 90,577 | 89,233 | 87,892 | 88,474 | 89,205 | 90,535 | 90,201 | 89,740 | 88,437 | 86,361 | 85,835 | 87,069 | 87,673 | 85,732 | 83,765 | 80,621 | 71,631 | 72,352 | 78,742 | 81,626 |
(Just look at the bottom row if you can't be bothered taking it all in)
Those are all the available figures for December 2021.
Basically, if you look at the overall bed occupancy number rather than just covid admissions, there isn't much (if any) spike to speak of. A lot of the negative spin will focus on the second row of data (covid occupancy). But I think the bottom row of totals that's most important (covid plus non-covid occupancy).
Since people seem to be getting discharged quicker than they're being admitted (and since so many appear to be incidental infections), that means fewer patients in hospital over the course of the month. This isn't like the Delta wave when a covid admission would likely mean a lengthy stay requiring specialist treatment. You can see from the above table that the all-included bed occupancy rate is actually trending downwards despite the current wave.
The real strain on the NHS will be related to staff availability. Omicron is going to be a short sharp pinch. At this point, it's just about hoping that the pinch doesn't leave a bruise or draw blood. But given this variant's relatively mildness, I think we can be hopeful that many will be fit for work again fairly quickly.
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Will be interesting to see the outcome in Xian - cases consistently in the hundreds daily in one city (first time in China since Wuhan), and they have implemented a full Wuhan-style lockdown, no going out even for groceries.
Will it work, and how long does it need to be in place.
Not sure any other country is going for the same strategy.
Well to be fair, the Chinese like locking up and controlling their own people.
Contender for Where have you been for the last two years? Thread of the year.
The up to date "Daily admissions and beds" list is at:
Statistics » COVID-19 Hospital Activity (england.nhs.uk)
Covid beds in use gets updated daily (by most but not all hospitals), admissions are usually updated a couple of days later. Currently up to date on occupied beds to 31 December (but the 28th on admissions)
The numbers are rising fast this week. London ahead of the others, but North West following fast.
To understand the detail you need some of the other background data that generally updates weekly.
The excel file is from that page, about two thirds down. My table is based on the most up-to-date data available.
By the same token other countries like killing theirs
Yep, I can see the file you linked to is one of the main datasets - today's release but the file you linked is showing the 28th December stats for covid beds in use. As far as I can see your table stops at 28 Dec as well - or is that a quirk of my browser?
The other file I mentioned gives covid occupied beds and covid MV beds to the 31st Dec. It's only a subset of the main dataset, it gets updated faster, though comes with more caveats. The difference hasn't mattered much until omicron, people would normally have only considered the fully classified data, but that raw hospital stat is getting watched as well now.
To be fair the Chinese are doing this as much to control and isolate their population as they are to save lives. You can't transfer the results of that to anywhere else.
The whole point was to show non-covid beds in use in addition to covid beds in use, so as to give a picture of how quickly people are discharged and balancing them out against incidental infections.
The dataset for that only goes up to 28 December.
I'd guess that the average Chinese citizen would have had fewer restrictions on gathering, eating, and going to school since ~April 2020, than most of the rest of the world.
China has been completely closed off to the world since this all started, exactly as planned. Nobody in, nobody out. Strict lockdowns to make sure people fear the virus and appreciate the protection.
A Western made virus that the CCP is working hard to keep you safe from, is the narrative being portrayed there (I did 6 years in China and still know plenty of people there)
One for people who enjoy odd graphics. Looks like most of the early omicron waves travelled out from London along the M4 and the M6.
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With Omicron being so infectious a combination of restrictions are even more needed to minimise the spread. All airborne viruses will be restricted by such measures to varying degrees. Witness flu being vastly reduced during this pandemic.
Anecdotally look at the difference between Australian states with those with the greatest restriction having fewer covid cases. Admittedly may of these started from a much lower base (also largely due largely to their earlier lockdowns). Still hard to look past NSW, who hugely eased restrictions as Omicron hit, who have gone from 1k to 25k daily cases in the blink of an eye compared to Victoria who have 7k daily cases.
Vaccination, third shots, distancing, masks and all restrictions all play a role in minimising infections but one on their own will be far less effective.
For the bolded part - I lived there for a year a long while ago, my father worked there for about 10 years. So we know a few people, both locals and foreigners. If you want some anti-CCP cred, it seems he has now been permanently denied a visa without explanation and can never meet his friends again.
One of the foreign families we knew is still there (and it's reflected in the official figures of ~1m foreigners still inside). A previously apolitical local guy we knew has become a Xi cultist, so the propaganda seems to be working.
Lockdowns have been pretty highly publicised, time-bound, and limited to single cities. There was one in Guangzhou, the Disneyland thing in Shanghai generated international headlines. A few others I can't remember, none seemed to last more than 2-4 weeks. Now Xian.
Whatever you may think of their govt or its motivations, it's pretty indisputable that their strategy has kept deaths down to a level not seen elsewhere, at least before omicron. Which was the original question I was responding to - can a lockdown beat omicron.
As Australia opens up to mass infection, likely infected people are going pharmacy to pharmacy in search for rapid tests further spreading the virus as there is no centralised system to order from
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At least one broadsheet breaking that masks in classrooms will be back
So I tested positive via a PCR done on Boxing day, despite providing negative daily lateral flow tests in the 7 days prior. I was completely asymptomatic. I then started showing symptoms on the 28th and felt pretty rough. My lateral flows were still negative.
My symptoms seemed to vanish as quickly as they arrived on the 29th. I did a lateral flow which finally showed positive.
I've felt absolutely fine since the 29th and did my day 6 lateral flow yesterday which returned negative. Did my day 7 this morning, expecting a negative result and an end to isolation but it returned positive. Wtf? What a kick in the dick.
My symptoms seemed to vanish as quickly as they arrived on the 29th. I did a lateral flow which finally showed positive.
I've felt absolutely fine since the 29th and did my day 6 lateral flow yesterday which returned negative. Did my day 7 this morning, expecting a negative result and an end to isolation but it returned positive. Wtf? What a kick in the dick.
feck me. The world is on its knees because of this and they blame the West!
cnuts
Two people I work close with have tested positive. One of them only realised he had it after going to McDonald’s and couldn’t taste anything (not a bad thing in this case). Did a PCR and was positive but said he was negative for about a week even when he had a cough.
My second work mate has feel bad all week, no symptoms other than a blocked nose. Had muscle pains but thought it was from doing too much at the gym. He tested positive yesterday after daily negative tests.
I’m still testing negative for about a week but I had a sore throat Christmas morning until the 28th, cough for 3 days but a mild one. My wife had a very feint second line on her lateral flow test so is going to get a PCR done. Her only symptoms are a migraine and muscle pain.
My second work mate has feel bad all week, no symptoms other than a blocked nose. Had muscle pains but thought it was from doing too much at the gym. He tested positive yesterday after daily negative tests.
I’m still testing negative for about a week but I had a sore throat Christmas morning until the 28th, cough for 3 days but a mild one. My wife had a very feint second line on her lateral flow test so is going to get a PCR done. Her only symptoms are a migraine and muscle pain.
So trueThis graph makes me weirdly angry. Being in 5 month intervals just seems wrong, 3, 4 or 6 all go into 12 months perfectly
British exceptionalism at his finestmore than 2 years with this now.
Is there any chance we get to the end in 2022
Is there any chance we get to the end in 2022
I agree that hospitalisations is the other critical metric.
It’s not really affected our lives for over 2 years yet though. I think it was the end of February/ early March before any sort of measures came into place in the west.
well, we will get there anyway
End? Almost no chance, we’ll be living with some endemic form of this for years.
Nope, unfortunately.
Truly amazes me how a government that has advanced so much in tech, finance, science, etc can have such a backward mentality based on pride in the silliest and pettiest form.
Also I do wonder how a less powerful military and financial country would have been treated if it had been the source country and behaved the way the the Chinese government has, surely the criticism would be much much worse esp in regards to how it as treating Africans in China last year.
In the field of individual rights, I am liberal minded and believe there are some freedoms (speech, thought, assembly, movement, etc.) that should be non-negotiable no matter what.
We have been doing this for over a year and to date it hasn't proven to be how Nazi Germany started. In fact it has been a great reassurance as you get automated contact alerts through the same app. It was even better when you could only scan in if vaccinated. That said some sensible pubs still require you to be vaccinated which are the only ones I'll go to.
NSW reducing restriction at the same time as Omicron has destroyed confidence and people have started to stay home in droves. NYE was very quiet and even many young people stayed home. My son is 23 and he stayed home with us as did all his mates for the first time in forever.
Many of the measures you dislike give you more freedom, not remove it.
I understand you have not seen your son during 2 years because he was stuck in the US: surely there is something wrong somewhere.
You mentioned Nazi Germany so let's see the Wiki definition and reflect on it
There are some similarities with Nazi Germany. QR code and apps are the modern tools used by the police state. Another aspect is the creation of second-class citizens who are persecuted based on their political views.
Human beings who do not comply with Covid measures (vaccination, masks, curfew, etc.) are the new second-class citizens. They can lose their job and are now engaged in a process of being severely criminalised, which paves the way for any future flourishing dictatorship regime
Last but not least, the risk is high to see any temporary restrictions to be permanent.
It's amazing convenient that you leave out the reason why these tools are being used, and why 'people are second-class citizens' in your comparison. I wonder why?
Can you think of many examples where people were rightly deemed second class citizens? Rightly in the sense that it was just and ultimately benefited society. I can think of a lot of bad examples but I genuinely struggle to think of good ones. Maybe one?
I know it’s not your phrase but that does seem like the slippery slope. Second class citizenry is defended on the basis of covid, then the idea of second class citizenry becomes normalised in a broader sense. Then dangerous avenues open up. It might not happen but it’s a legitimate fear IMO.
Or were people pretty comfortable with the idea of second class citizenry pre-covid?
As you've said, I'm using his nonsense terminology. Not being allowed to do certain things temporarily, because you refuse to protect yourself and others from a harmful and potentially fatal virus is in no way equivalent to anything he is talking about.
Leper colonies?
Using the same sort of analogy as you then sure, I can think of examples. The most obvious being anyone who thinks they should be allowed to drive a car without a driving license. Another would be someone who wants to work with/around kids and refuses to engage with the police vetting process.
None of those examples force people to get an unwanted medical procedure.
This is a retarded discussion. Look no further in history than the smallpox vaccine. Populations of those forced to take it were more robust and survived, and it didnt impact their long term freedoms. And how a lack of vaccine mandate + right wing idiot views (and some left wing) killed people in 20ty century America.
So? The notion @Brwned put forward was that denying some members of society certain rights if they weren’t willing to follow a state dictated process to attain those rights is a slippery slope to “second class citizens” Which is obviously not the case.
nobody has is being forced to take the vaccine either