stw2022
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Is there any evidence anywhere that restrictions are effective against omicron?
It isn’t magical. It’s a virus that spreads from person to person. So restrictions which put fewer people in close proximity to each other will obviously slow spread. Here’s hoping we don’t end up needing to generate the evidence you’re looking for.Is there any evidence anywhere that restrictions are effective against omicron?
01/12/2021 | 02/12/2021 | 03/12/2021 | 04/12/2021 | 05/12/2021 | 06/12/2021 | 07/12/2021 | 08/12/2021 | 09/12/2021 | 10/12/2021 | 11/12/2021 | 12/12/2021 | 13/12/2021 | 14/12/2021 | 15/12/2021 | 16/12/2021 | 17/12/2021 | 18/12/2021 | 19/12/2021 | 20/12/2021 | 21/12/2021 | 22/12/2021 | 23/12/2021 | 24/12/2021 | 25/12/2021 | 26/12/2021 | 27/12/2021 | 28/12/2021 | |
Adult General and Acute beds - occupied by non-COVID-19 patients (as at 08:00) | 79,624 | 80,902 | 80,401 | 79,382 | 80,240 | 80,720 | 81,526 | 81,558 | 81,513 | 80,228 | 78,960 | 79,504 | 80,135 | 81,290 | 81,076 | 80,591 | 79,412 | 77,494 | 77,002 | 78,063 | 78,413 | 76,384 | 74,517 | 71,212 | 62,700 | 63,168 | 66,940 | 70,621 |
Adult General and Acute beds - occupied by confirmed COVID-19 patients (as at 08:00) | 4,552 | 4,612 | 4,548 | 4,475 | 4,593 | 4,667 | 4,635 | 4,645 | 4,707 | 4,668 | 4,623 | 4,705 | 4,891 | 4,868 | 4,772 | 4,765 | 4,763 | 4,699 | 4,826 | 5,058 | 5,230 | 5,320 | 5,225 | 5,430 | 5,188 | 5,482 | 6,397 | 7,157 |
Mechanical Ventilation beds - occupied by confirmed COVID-19 patients (as at 08:00) | 773 | 774 | 783 | 775 | 770 | 793 | 779 | 778 | 792 | 793 | 785 | 788 | 795 | 795 | 786 | 783 | 789 | 767 | 767 | 768 | 757 | 745 | 747 | 742 | 745 | 758 | 776 | 758 |
Adult Critical Care beds - occupied by confirmed COVID-19 patients (as at 08:00) | 868 | 870 | 866 | 854 | 850 | 862 | 894 | 890 | 883 | 883 | 934 | 958 | 893 | 925 | 932 | 960 | 875 | 863 | 850 | 848 | 818 | 809 | 850 | 806 | 800 | 822 | 866 | 835 |
Adult Critical Care beds - occupied by non-COVID-19 patients (as at 08:00) | 2,649 | 2,656 | 2,683 | 2,627 | 2,525 | 2,494 | 2,599 | 2,678 | 2,682 | 2,661 | 2,590 | 2,519 | 2,491 | 2,657 | 2,635 | 2,641 | 2,598 | 2,538 | 2,390 | 2,332 | 2,455 | 2,474 | 2,426 | 2,431 | 2,198 | 2,122 | 3,763 | 2,255 |
Total on date | 88,466 | 89,814 | 89,281 | 88,113 | 88,978 | 89,536 | 90,433 | 90,549 | 90,577 | 89,233 | 87,892 | 88,474 | 89,205 | 90,535 | 90,201 | 89,740 | 88,437 | 86,361 | 85,835 | 87,069 | 87,673 | 85,732 | 83,765 | 80,621 | 71,631 | 72,352 | 78,742 | 81,626 |
Will be interesting to see the outcome in Xian - cases consistently in the hundreds daily in one city (first time in China since Wuhan), and they have implemented a full Wuhan-style lockdown, no going out even for groceries.Is there any evidence anywhere that restrictions are effective against omicron?
Well to be fair, the Chinese like locking up and controlling their own people.Will be interesting to see the outcome in Xian - cases consistently in the hundreds daily in one city (first time in China since Wuhan), and they have implemented a full Wuhan-style lockdown, no going out even for groceries.
Will it work, and how long does it need to be in place.
Not sure any other country is going for the same strategy.
Contender for Where have you been for the last two years? Thread of the year.Is there any evidence anywhere that restrictions are effective against omicron?
The up to date "Daily admissions and beds" list is at:This excel file is what I'd be looking at: https://www.england.nhs.uk/statisti...d-admissions-and-beds-publication-211230.xlsx
01/12/2021 02/12/2021 03/12/2021 04/12/2021 05/12/2021 06/12/2021 07/12/2021 08/12/2021 09/12/2021 10/12/2021 11/12/2021 12/12/2021 13/12/2021 14/12/2021 15/12/2021 16/12/2021 17/12/2021 18/12/2021 19/12/2021 20/12/2021 21/12/2021 22/12/2021 23/12/2021 24/12/2021 25/12/2021 26/12/2021 27/12/2021 28/12/2021 Adult General and Acute beds - occupied by non-COVID-19 patients (as at 08:00) 79,624 80,902 80,401 79,382 80,240 80,720 81,526 81,558 81,513 80,228 78,960 79,504 80,135 81,290 81,076 80,591 79,412 77,494 77,002 78,063 78,413 76,384 74,517 71,212 62,700 63,168 66,940 70,621 Adult General and Acute beds - occupied by confirmed COVID-19 patients (as at 08:00) 4,552 4,612 4,548 4,475 4,593 4,667 4,635 4,645 4,707 4,668 4,623 4,705 4,891 4,868 4,772 4,765 4,763 4,699 4,826 5,058 5,230 5,320 5,225 5,430 5,188 5,482 6,397 7,157 Mechanical Ventilation beds - occupied by confirmed COVID-19 patients (as at 08:00) 773 774 783 775 770 793 779 778 792 793 785 788 795 795 786 783 789 767 767 768 757 745 747 742 745 758 776 758 Adult Critical Care beds - occupied by confirmed COVID-19 patients (as at 08:00) 868 870 866 854 850 862 894 890 883 883 934 958 893 925 932 960 875 863 850 848 818 809 850 806 800 822 866 835 Adult Critical Care beds - occupied by non-COVID-19 patients (as at 08:00) 2,649 2,656 2,683 2,627 2,525 2,494 2,599 2,678 2,682 2,661 2,590 2,519 2,491 2,657 2,635 2,641 2,598 2,538 2,390 2,332 2,455 2,474 2,426 2,431 2,198 2,122 3,763 2,255 Total on date 88,466 89,814 89,281 88,113 88,978 89,536 90,433 90,549 90,577 89,233 87,892 88,474 89,205 90,535 90,201 89,740 88,437 86,361 85,835 87,069 87,673 85,732 83,765 80,621 71,631 72,352 78,742 81,626
(Just look at the bottom row if you can't be bothered taking it all in)
Those are all the available figures for December 2021.
Basically, if you look at the overall bed occupancy number rather than just covid admissions, there isn't much (if any) spike to speak of.
Since people seem to be getting discharged quicker than they're being admitted (and since so many appear to be incidental infections), that means fewer patients in hospital over the course of the month. This isn't like the Delta wave when a covid admission would likely mean a lengthy stay requiring specialist treatment. You can see from the above table that the all-included bed occupancy rate is actually trending downwards despite the current wave.
The real strain on the NHS will be related to staff availability. Omicron is going to be a short sharp pinch. At this point, it's just about hoping that the pinch doesn't draw blood or leave a bruise. But given this variant's relatively mildness, I think we can be hopeful that many will be fit for work again fairly quickly.
The excel file is from that page, about two thirds down. My table is based on the most up-to-date data available.The up to date "Daily admissions and beds" list is at:
Statistics » COVID-19 Hospital Activity (england.nhs.uk)
Beds in use gets updated daily (by most but not all hospitals), admissions are usually updated a couple of days later. Currently up to date on occupied beds to 31 December (but the 28th on admissions)
The numbers are rising fast this week. London ahead of the others, but North West following fast.
To understand the detail you need some of the other background data that generally updates weekly.
By the same token other countries like killing theirsWell to be fair, the Chinese like locking up and controlling their own people.
Yep, I can see the file you linked to is one of the main datasets - today's release but the file you linked is showing the 28th December stats for covid beds in use. As far as I can see your table stops at 28 Dec as well - or is that a quirk of my browser?The excel file is from that page, about two thirds down. My table is based on the most up-to-date data available.
To be fair the Chinese are doing this as much to control and isolate their population as they are to save lives. You can't transfer the results of that to anywhere else.Will be interesting to see the outcome in Xian - cases consistently in the hundreds daily in one city (first time in China since Wuhan), and they have implemented a full Wuhan-style lockdown, no going out even for groceries.
Will it work, and how long does it need to be in place.
Not sure any other country is going for the same strategy.
The whole point was to show non-covid beds in use in addition to covid beds in use, so as to give a picture of how quickly people are discharged and balancing them out against incidental infections.Yep, I can see the file you linked to is one of the main datasets - today's release but the file you linked is showing the 28th December stats for covid beds in use. As far as I can see your table stops at 28 Dec as well - or is that a quirk of my browser?
The other file I mentioned gives covid occupied beds and covid MV beds to the 31st Dec. It's only a subset of the main dataset, it gets updated faster, though comes with more caveats. The difference hasn't mattered much until omicron, people would normally have only considered the fully classified data, but that raw hospital stat is getting watched as well now.
I'd guess that the average Chinese citizen would have had fewer restrictions on gathering, eating, and going to school since ~April 2020, than most of the rest of the world.To be fair the Chinese are doing this as much to control and isolate their population as they are to save lives. You can't transfer the results of that to anywhere else.
China has been completely closed off to the world since this all started, exactly as planned. Nobody in, nobody out. Strict lockdowns to make sure people fear the virus and appreciate the protection.I'd guess that the average Chinese citizen would have had fewer restrictions on gathering, eating, and going to school since ~April 2020, than most of the rest of the world.
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With Omicron being so infectious a combination of restrictions are even more needed to minimise the spread. All airborne viruses will be restricted by such measures to varying degrees. Witness flu being vastly reduced during this pandemic.Is there any evidence anywhere that restrictions are effective against omicron?
For the bolded part - I lived there for a year a long while ago, my father worked there for about 10 years. So we know a few people, both locals and foreigners. If you want some anti-CCP cred, it seems he has now been permanently denied a visa without explanation and can never meet his friends again.China has been completely closed off to the world since this all started, exactly as planned. Nobody in, nobody out. Strict lockdowns to make sure people fear the virus and appreciate the protection.
A Western made virus that the CCP is working hard to keep you safe from, is the narrative being portrayed there (I did 6 years in China and still know plenty of people there)
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feck me. The world is on its knees because of this and they blame the West!China has been completely closed off to the world since this all started, exactly as planned. Nobody in, nobody out. Strict lockdowns to make sure people fear the virus and appreciate the protection.
A Western made virus that the CCP is working hard to keep you safe from, is the narrative being portrayed there (I did 6 years in China and still know plenty of people there)
So true British exceptionalism at his finestThis graph makes me weirdly angry. Being in 5 month intervals just seems wrong, 3, 4 or 6 all go into 12 months perfectly
I agree that hospitalisations is the other critical metric.Deaths, as callous as it might sound, but hospitalisations is. It is brutal as the last update, from 27th shows nearly 2k hospitalisations, if that keeps going up at this rate then lockdowns will be inevitable.
It’s not really affected our lives for over 2 years yet though. I think it was the end of February/ early March before any sort of measures came into place in the west.more than 2 years with this now.
Is there any chance we get to the end in 2022
well, we will get there anywayIt’s not really affected our lives for over 2 years yet though. I think it was the end of February/ early March before any sort of measures came into place in the west.
End? Almost no chance, we’ll be living with some endemic form of this for years.more than 2 years with this now.
Is there any chance we get to the end in 2022
Nope, unfortunately.more than 2 years with this now.
Is there any chance we get to the end in 2022
Truly amazes me how a government that has advanced so much in tech, finance, science, etc can have such a backward mentality based on pride in the silliest and pettiest form.China has been completely closed off to the world since this all started, exactly as planned. Nobody in, nobody out. Strict lockdowns to make sure people fear the virus and appreciate the protection.
A Western made virus that the CCP is working hard to keep you safe from, is the narrative being portrayed there (I did 6 years in China and still know plenty of people there)
In the field of individual rights, I am liberal minded and believe there are some freedoms (speech, thought, assembly, movement, etc.) that should be non-negotiable no matter what.
We have been doing this for over a year and to date it hasn't proven to be how Nazi Germany started. In fact it has been a great reassurance as you get automated contact alerts through the same app. It was even better when you could only scan in if vaccinated. That said some sensible pubs still require you to be vaccinated which are the only ones I'll go to.
NSW reducing restriction at the same time as Omicron has destroyed confidence and people have started to stay home in droves. NYE was very quiet and even many young people stayed home. My son is 23 and he stayed home with us as did all his mates for the first time in forever.
Many of the measures you dislike give you more freedom, not remove it.
There are some similarities with Nazi Germany. QR code and apps are the modern tools used by the police state. Another aspect is the creation of second-class citizens who are persecuted based on their political views.Nazi Germany, officially known as the German Reich from 1933 until 1943, and the Greater German Reich from 1943 to 1945, was the German state between 1933 and 1945, when Adolf Hitler and the Nazi Party controlled the country, transforming it into a dictatorship. Under Hitler's rule, Germany quickly became a totalitarian state where nearly all aspects of life were controlled by the government.
Human beings who do not comply with Covid measures (vaccination, masks, curfew, etc.) are the new second-class citizens. They can lose their job and are now engaged in a process of being severely criminalised, which paves the way for any future flourishing dictatorship regimeA second-class citizen is a person who is systematically and actively discriminated against within a state or other political jurisdiction, despite their nominal status as a citizen or a legal resident there. While not necessarily slaves, outlaws, illegal immigrants, or criminals, second-class citizens have significantly limited legal rights, civil rights and socioeconomic opportunities, and are often subject to mistreatment and exploitation at the hands of their putative superiors. Systems with de facto second-class citizenry are widely regarded as violating human rights.
Typical conditions facing second-class citizens include but are not limited to:
- disenfranchisement (a lack or loss of voting rights)
- limitations on civil or military service (not including conscription in every case)
- restrictions on language, religion, education
- lack of freedom of movement, expression, and association
- limitations on the right to keep and bear arms
- restrictions on marriage
- restrictions on housing
- restrictions on property ownership
It's amazing convenient that you leave out the reason why these tools are being used, and why 'people are second-class citizens' in your comparison. I wonder why?In the field of individual rights, I am liberal minded and believe there are some freedoms (speech, thought, assembly, movement, etc.) that should be non-negotiable no matter what.
I understand you have not seen your son during 2 years because he was stuck in the US: surely there is something wrong somewhere.
You mentioned Nazi Germany so let's see the Wiki definition and reflect on it
There are some similarities with Nazi Germany. QR code and apps are the modern tools used by the police state. Another aspect is the creation of second-class citizens who are persecuted based on their political views.
Human beings who do not comply with Covid measures (vaccination, masks, curfew, etc.) are the new second-class citizens. They can lose their job and are now engaged in a process of being severely criminalised, which paves the way for any future flourishing dictatorship regime
Last but not least, the risk is high to see any temporary restrictions to be permanent.
Can you think of many examples where people were rightly deemed second class citizens? Rightly in the sense that it was just and ultimately benefited society. I can think of a lot of bad examples but I genuinely struggle to think of good ones. Maybe one?It's amazing convenient that you leave out the reason why these tools are being used, and why 'people are second-class citizens' in your comparison. I wonder why?
As you've said, I'm using his nonsense terminology. Not being allowed to do certain things temporarily, because you refuse to protect yourself and others from a harmful and potentially fatal virus is in no way equivalent to anything he is talking about.Can you think of many examples where people were rightly deemed second class citizens? Rightly in the sense that it was just and ultimately benefited society. I can think of a lot of bad examples but I genuinely struggle to think of good ones. Maybe one?
I know it’s not your phrase but that does seem like the slippery slope. Second class citizenry is defended on the basis of covid, then the idea of second class citizenry becomes normalised in a broader sense. Then dangerous avenues open up. It might not happen but it’s a legitimate fear IMO.
Or were people pretty comfortable with the idea of second class citizenry pre-covid?
Leper colonies?Can you think of many examples where people were rightly deemed second class citizens? Rightly in the sense that it was just and ultimately benefited society. I can think of a lot of bad examples but I genuinely struggle to think of good ones. Maybe one?
I know it’s not your phrase but that does seem like the slippery slope. Second class citizenry is defended on the basis of covid, then the idea of second class citizenry becomes normalised in a broader sense. Then dangerous avenues open up. It might not happen but it’s a legitimate fear IMO.
Or were people pretty comfortable with the idea of second class citizenry pre-covid?
Using the same sort of analogy as you then sure, I can think of examples. The most obvious being anyone who thinks they should be allowed to drive a car without a driving license. Another would be someone who wants to work with/around kids and refuses to engage with the police vetting process.Can you think of many examples where people were rightly deemed second class citizens? Rightly in the sense that it was just and ultimately benefited society. I can think of a lot of bad examples but I genuinely struggle to think of good ones. Maybe one?
I know it’s not your phrase but that does seem like the slippery slope. Second class citizenry is defended on the basis of covid, then the idea of second class citizenry becomes normalised in a broader sense. Then dangerous avenues open up. It might not happen but it’s a legitimate fear IMO.
Or were people pretty comfortable with the idea of second class citizenry pre-covid?
None of those examples force people to get an unwanted medical procedure.Using the same sort of analogy as you then sure, I can think of examples. The most obvious being anyone who thinks they should be allowed to drive a car without a driving license. Another would be someone who wants to work with/around kids and refuses to engage with the police vetting process.
So? The notion @Brwned put forward was that denying some members of society certain rights if they weren’t willing to follow a state dictated process to attain those rights is a slippery slope to “second class citizens” Which is obviously not the case.None of those examples force people to get an unwanted medical procedure.
nobody has is being forced to take the vaccine eitherNone of those examples force people to get an unwanted medical procedure.