Westminster Politics

Mr Pigeon

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It's "pigeon" but, hey, your spelling is getting better because you used actual letters in your reply to me this time instead of a bucket of drool. Well done! I'd give you a gold star sticker if I wasn't worried you'd somehow mistake it for a foreigner and start pointing at your door shouting "Fack off back where you came from!"
 

Tarrou

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QE whilst raising interest rates.. feels like they’ve lost control and this is desperation measures

really worrying times..
 

Rado_N

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You can be a student and get a job at the same time. You're contributing. Paying something in. Giving something back.

The fact you find that funny, speaks otherwise.
Just checking, you’re still pretending you’re not a Tory?
 

MIC_FIN

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It's "pigeon" but, hey, your spelling is getting better because you used actual letters in your reply to me this time instead of a bucket of drool. Well done! I'd give you a gold star sticker if I wasn't worried you'd somehow mistake it for a foreigner and start pointing at your door shouting "Fack off back where you came from!"
You know I'm winding you up, right?

I've had warnings and it's all meant in jest. Satirical, parody nonsense. But I don't mind if you take everything I post seriously. Life is too short mate.

Anyhoo..
 

11101

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It's borne of a bit of a misunderstanding of what was going on. Some pension funds were having to sell some liquid assets, including gilts, to raise cash for margin calls on interest rate swaps that had turned against them cos of rate projections leaping up. It was more a fear that people selling gilts would force the yield up higher, becoming self-fulfilling, so the BoE intervened to buy a load and try to put a lid on yields.
@11101 will be able to explain far better, but you can't have a run on pension funds per se, so the Northern Rock example isn't great, but it sounds like a serious funding crunch was happening and the BoE had to act. These pension funds are multi-billion schemes, so even small percentages for them are colossal amounts of money.

Cant add much more to that. Pension funds have been buying interest rate swaps (which they shouldn't be allowed to, imo) which are now going against them, and they need to sell assets to meet the collateral payments on those. It's a vicious circle. Normally its a process that takes days or weeks in a 'safe' market like govies but this week it's been happening in hours.
 

Mart1974

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It's "pigeon" but, hey, your spelling is getting better because you used actual letters in your reply to me this time instead of a bucket of drool. Well done! I'd give you a gold star sticker if I wasn't worried you'd somehow mistake it for a foreigner and start pointing at your door shouting "Fack off back where you came from!"
:D
 

Smores

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I usually think those venturing onto Sky News whether government reps or right wing media give you a solid guess at what will come in the coming days.

Hearing them mention timing a lot so think its likely some of their plans are delayed. They'll firmly claim they'll go ahead but at a later date.
 

WPMUFC

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You get the distinct impression from the leaks that the tory response to this self made crisis is complete shock that the bankers and markets are complaining...... "we gave you more money, how can you complain, we paid you".

Hence you see all the comments about bankers being Marxist revolutionaries. They have no idea how to respond because their entire reason for that mini budget was to try and grease the wheels for their post election careers. Now the bankers are not playing along, its all "culture war" to distract.
 

dumbo

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You know I'm winding you up, right?

I've had warnings and it's all meant in jest. Satirical, parody nonsense. But I don't mind if you take everything I post seriously. Life is too short mate.

Anyhoo..
Top Tory banter.

And they wonder why right wing comedy is in the doldrums.
 

Jippy

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Can they cut enough?
De-linking pensions from inflation perhaps but that won't make a dent
Defence they have committed to increase spending
Hs2 probably axed but that will be dwarfed by the increase in servicing debts
Education probably too unpopular to touch that
Nhs... political suicide to defund or sell
Welfare will be cut but hard to see how it's cut too much with rising inflation

Genuinley not sure how they would cut to the extent needed... probably 15%?
They can obfuscate cuts by not inflation linking any planned rises I guess and GDP is tanking re the defence spending pledge.

Saying that, they'll probably just U-turn and blame 'Putin's war'.
 

finneh

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They can obfuscate cuts by not inflation linking any planned rises I guess and GDP is tanking re the defence spending pledge.

Saying that, they'll probably just U-turn and blame 'Putin's war'.
They can't really U-turn given that Labour supports all of their policies with the exception of less than 2% of the budgetary commitment (the 45% rate abolishment).

In fairness to Starmer he's snookered them. He's been against all of their tax rises and has been pro the vast majority of their tax cuts. He's unicorned the Tories just as they did to Labour over Brexit.

The Tories know that if they U-Turn on any policy that would have a meaningful effect on restoring faith in UK debt markets (Corporation Tax, 19% IT cut, Energy support, reversal of NI rise), Labour would hammer them on stifling business/growth/investment or punishing normal people. The Tories also know that the 45% tax rate is inconsequential in the scheme of things, so U-Turning on this would have no discernable effect on the markets whilst also playing into the fact that they're running their economic policy straight out of the Labour HQ.

Starmer has completely Boris Johnson'd the Tories.

Don't get me wrong though... Once he's inevitably elected with the Eat Your Cake & Have It Too Johnsonite politics; he'll struggle because its fiscally illiterate. Starmer will face the same choices Truss currently faces in a world of expensive crises-related debt. Whack up taxes and repress growth to fund statism; reduce public spending whilst maintaining/reducing tax to propel growth; or a mixture of the two. Like Johnson he's rules out all three of course.
 
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Jippy

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The Torygraph is loyal to the end. It must be so tiring seeing everything as an existential left versus right battle. Those Marxist currency and bond traders again...

Liz Truss must hold her nerve as the world tips into a calamitous recession

The elite mood music in 2022 is set by Left-wing American economists and a hysterical Twitterati that loathes Truss, Brexit and supply-side economics.... The great danger is that the Left is trying to turn our surging interest rates into an “ERM II moment”, pinning the blame on the PM’s tax cuts, while in fact the end of cheap money would have happened anyway, albeit more gradually.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...t-hold-nerve-world-tips-calamitous-recession/
 

Mogget

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It's pretty fecking incredible that right wing governments have been in power for over a decade now but "the left" is still being blamed for the situation we're in.
 

Fluctuation0161

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They can't really U-turn given that Labour supports all of their policies with the exception of less than 2% of the budgetary commitment (the 45% rate abolishment).

In fairness to Starmer he's snookered them. He's been against all of their tax rises and has been pro the vast majority of their tax cuts. He's unicorned the Tories just as they did to Labour over Brexit.

The Tories know that if they U-Turn on any policy that would have a meaningful effect on restoring faith in UK debt markets (Corporation Tax, 19% IT cut, Energy support, reversal of NI rise), Labour would hammer them on stifling business/growth/investment or punishing normal people. The Tories also know that the 45% tax rate is inconsequential in the scheme of things, so U-Turning on this would have no discernable effect on the markets whilst also playing into the fact that they're running their economic policy straight out of the Labour HQ.

Starmer has completely Boris Johnson'd the Tories.

Don't get me wrong though... Once he's inevitably elected with the Eat Your Cake & Have It Too Johnsonite politics; he'll struggle because its fiscally illiterate. Starmer will face the same choices Truss currently faces in a world of expensive crises-related debt. Whack up taxes and repress growth to fund statism; reduce public spending whilst maintaining/reducing tax to propel growth; or a mixture of the two. Like Johnson he's rules out all three of course.
The Tories have snookered themselves with ridiculous policy at ridiculous timing. But Truss is a stubborn, simple minded narcissist who doesn't want to U turn only one week into her premiership. It has feck all to do with Starmer.